花旗--亚洲电信行业研究报告2007

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Three Themes into an overweight sector into 2H07
 Biggest overweight in CIR regional model portfolio — Robust earnings
visibility and growth along with sound yields amidst the highest free cash flow
generation in the region keeps us comfortable with our positive view. Three
themes support our stock views.
1. Value in North Asia versus momentum in South — The valuation case for
North Asia is clearly cheaper (China apart) though South Asia generally
comes with better growth. Large caps come cheaper than mid-caps as
well. China Mobile replaces StarHub as our top pick; SKT instead of True
in our “Buys with Spice list”.
2. Country versus Sector Stocks – PT Telkom, TM and AIS are winners —
All show stronger correlation with their home indices than with the
sector. With 1H underperformance drivers past, Telkom should catch up
with the JSX. Ditto for TM – higher overseas earnings imply lower
correlation to KLCI in future though. Our positive view on the Thai market
drove our recent upgrade of AIS.
3. Three-Line Graph (3LG) message — Portfolio of top five 3LG scorers for
1Q07– Bharti, PT Telkom, DiGi, China Mobile and SKT – should
outperform portfolio of bottom five 3LG scorers – MTNL, KT, True, China
Netcom and CHT – over 3Q07.
 India and China country themes — India remains our favourite wireless
market given its profitable growth and catalysts – our preference order is
Bharti, Idea and RCOM. For China, operational trends clearly favour mobile.
A confluence of low tariffs, elasticity, scale, financial and margin reserves
leaves us with a preference for mobile in China. China Mobile, China
Unicom, China Telecom and China Netcom is our order of preference.
 Changes to our favored list — In: China Mobile as top pick, SKT into "Buys
with Spice". Out – StarHub from top picks, True Corp from Buys with Spice
list. Top picks: Bharti, China Mobile, DiGi, Idea, PT Telkom, SingTel. Buys
with Spice: China Unicom, LG Dacom, SKT and TM.

Contents
Top Picks and Buys with Spice: Changes and Rationale 7
Three Themes into 2H07 9
The Quants View 18
Factor Investing Scene 21
Country Section 22
China: Long-term Structural Growth Outweighs Short-term Regulatory Uncertainties 23
Hong Kong: Nothing to Write Home About…Yet 25
India: Upwards and Onwards 27
Indonesia: Rising tide 29
Korea: Cheering for the Underdogs 31
Malaysia: And Then There Were Two 33
Philippines: Wireless Growth Makes a Comeback 35
Singapore: More to Excite Outside Singapore for Now 37
Taiwan: Solid Yields and Then Some Convergence Action 39
Thailand: Follow the Leader (with the Market) 41
Company Section 43
Advanced Info (ADVA.BK) 44
Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO) 47
China Mobile (0941.HK) 50
China Netcom (0906.HK) 53
China Telecom (0728.HK) 56
China Unicom (0762.HK) 59
Chunghwa Telecom (2412.TW) 62
DiGi.Com (DSOM.KL) 65
Far Eastone (4904.TW) 68
Globe Telecom (GLO.PS) 71
Hanarotelecom (033630.KQ) 74
HTIL (2332.HK) 77
IDEA Cellular (IDEA.BO) 80
Indosat (ISAT.JK) 83
KT Corp. (030200.KS) 86
KT Freetel (032390.KS) 89
LG Dacom (015940.KS) 92
LG TeleCom (032640.KQ) 95
MobileOne (MONE.SI) 98
MTNL (MTNL.BO) 101
PCCW (0008.HK) 104
PLDT (TEL.PS) 107
PT Telkom (TLKM.JK) 110
Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO) 113
Shin Corp. (SHIN.BK) 116
SingTel (STEL.SI) 119
SK Telecom (017670.KS) 122
Smartone (0315.HK) 125
StarHub (STAR.SI) 128
TAC (DTAC.BK) 131
Taiwan Mobile (3045.TW) 134
Telekom Malaysia (TLMM.KL) 137
True Corp (TRUE.BK) 140
VSNL (VSNL.BO) 143
Appendix I – Asian Telecoms Valuation Comparison 146
Appendix II: Background: Bharti’s Three-Line Graph (3LG) Performance Dashboard 155
Appendix III - Asia Pacific Market Intelligence/Economic Indicators 163
Appendix A-1 174

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