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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月美国电信行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：85
【目录或简介】：
expectations as rigorous cost cutting offset
secular/cyclical pressures. CenturyLink (formerly CenturyTel),
Equinix, SAVVIS and Verizon issued disappointing
guidance; most of the other carriers provided a
relatively more optimistic outlook for 2010. The stocks
have lagged the market YTD, but we believe the sector
offers an attractive risk/reward tradeoff at current levels.
What's new: Positive 4Q trends: Access line loss
stabilizing. RLEC RGU growth continues to improve.
Postpaid wireless adds ticked up, partly on increased
marketing/seasonality, though this is partly to blame for
tepid 1Q expectations. Prepaid remains strong; new
entrants continue to take share. Carriers generally see
stability in EBITDA and FCF and a modest recovery.
Pension drag lower in 2010 for most. Management
teams are not showing much concern on the regulatory
front, although there could be headline risk.
Negative 4Q trends: Weaker broadband and Telco TV
results; Verizon FiOS was particularly weak. Modestly
rising capex, elimination of bonus depreciation a drag in
2010. Wireless margins under pressure from higher
smartphone subsidies; price cuts pressuring ARPU. Not
much recovery in enterprise demand, though revenue
trends improved on easier Y/Y comps.
Where we differ: We find valuations attractive, with
significant negatives priced in. Guidance generally
supports a solid outlook with strong FCF generation
supporting the best dividend yields in the market.
Regulatory and competitive threats are a concern, but
we expect improved visibility with the unveiling of the
FCC’s Broadband Plan this week. Tower and data
center stocks offer attractive growth prospects. Key
picks include: AT&T, CenturyLink, Windstream, BCE,
Rogers, Rackspace, SAVVIS and Crown Castle.
What’s next: 1) We expect the FCC to release an action
plan related to the National Broadband Plan (NBP)
rulemaking process. 2) We will host a call on Monday
Mar 22 to address the NBP implications on the sector;
details to come. 3) CTIA starts March 23 in Las Vegas.
Contents
Key Industry Investment Debates: ............................................................................................................................... 3
Summary of 4Q09 Key Trends – Telecom Showing Signs of Recovery.................................................................... 4
A Look Back at 2009 ...................................................................................................................................................... 5
4Q Trend Tracker: Positive Trends Outweigh Negative Ones.................................................................................... 6
Companies Covered....................................................................................................................................................... 9
Telecom Performance: Regulatory Concerns a Drag on Telco Stocks................................................................... 10
Valuation: Bells Trading at Attractive Levels............................................................................................................. 11
Revenue Generating Unit Growth — Trough Likely Behind for RLECs .................................................................. 18
Broadband Adds Share Still Favors Cable................................................................................................................. 28
Bell Wireline Margins – Steady at AT&T and Qwest on Q/Q Basis .......................................................................... 34
Enterprise Growth Improves as Comps Get Easier................................................................................................... 36
Capex Flat Y/Y for the Bells in Aggregate .................................................................................................................. 39
Wireless: Postpaid Adds Improve Q/Q Led by Verizon and AT&T .......................................................................... 42
Towers: Steady Leasing Activity Expected to Continue........................................................................................... 59
Canada: Significant Y/Y Postpaid Adds Share Shifts Favor BCE............................................................................ 64
Alternative Carriers: Growth Unlikely to Recover Until 2H10................................................................................... 70
Data Centers: Metrics Strong as Pricing Remains Firm; Churn Stable................................................................... 73
CLECs: Outlook Somewhat More Encouraging, But Still 2H10 Stories .................................................................. 76
Appendix ....................................................................................................................................................................... 78
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