瑞士银行——中国铅锌行业研究报告2008年8月

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<p>T urnaround unlikely in the short term<br/>􀂄 Fundamentals remain weak<br/>China is a key driver of the global oversupply in zinc and lead. We believe there<br/>could be a severe market surplus in China as it increases production by 14% over<br/>the next three years from the 2007 global production level. The market surplus will<br/>come from mining and smelting capacity expansion, higher imports, and weakerthan-<br/>expected demand growth.<br/>􀂄 Price weakness could last at least 12 months<br/>Our global mining & metals team forecasts the London Metal Exchange (LME)<br/>zinc price per pound at US¢96.5/98.8/130.0 for 2008/09/10, and the LME lead<br/>price per pound at US¢100.2/90/125 over the same period. Supported by the<br/>marginal cost of US¢95/lb, we estimate the average Shanghai Non-ferrous Metal<br/>Market (SMM) zinc price per tonne would be Rmb16,956/14,927/19,650, and the<br/>lead price per tonne would be Rmb17,437/15,000/18,895 for 2008/09/10.<br/>􀂄 Risks to our view: substantial reduction in China output<br/>Although unlikely, we think China’s market surplus can be reversed only if<br/>production is lowered by 15%, either by a coordinated/joint move by producers or<br/>by closing down small producers. There are signs that Chinese miners and smelters<br/>are responding to the weak prices.<br/>􀂄 Our top pick: Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan<br/>We initiate coverage of Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan (Buy), Western Mining (Buy),<br/>and Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium (Sell). We believe Shenzhen Zhongjin<br/>Lingnan will best weather weak zinc and lead market fundamentals because of its<br/>management expertise, output expansion, and strong by-product prices.</p><p>Contents page<br/>Summary and investment case 3<br/>Industry analysis 6<br/>Competitive analysis 22<br/>Industry risks 25<br/>Valuation and comparables 26<br/>Company pages 35<br/>— Western Mining..................................................................................................36<br/>— Investment Thesis........................................................................................37<br/>— Western Mining’s key drivers .................................................................37<br/>— Key catalysts .........................................................................................40<br/>— Risks .....................................................................................................42<br/>— Valuation and basis for our price target..................................................42<br/>— UBS versus consensus..........................................................................42<br/>— Sensitivity analysis.................................................................................42<br/>— Risk analysis..........................................................................................43<br/>— Return on capital ...................................................................................43<br/>— Financials ..............................................................................................44<br/>— Valuation ...............................................................................................47<br/>— Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet...............................................................54<br/>— Investment Thesis........................................................................................55<br/>— Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan’s key drivers..............................................55<br/>— Key catalysts .........................................................................................57<br/>— Risks .....................................................................................................58<br/>— Valuation and basis for our price target..................................................59<br/>— UBS versus consensus..........................................................................59<br/>— Sensitivity analysis.................................................................................59<br/>— Risk analysis..........................................................................................60<br/>— Return on capital ...................................................................................61<br/>— Financials ..............................................................................................61<br/>— Valuation ...............................................................................................65<br/>— Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium..................................................................71<br/>— Investment Thesis........................................................................................72<br/>— Fundamental weakness in a tough year.................................................72<br/>— Key Catalysts.........................................................................................75<br/>— Risks .....................................................................................................75<br/>— Valuation and basis of our price target...................................................76<br/>— UBS versus consensus..........................................................................76<br/>— Sensitivity analysis.................................................................................76<br/>— Return on capital ...................................................................................77<br/>— Financials ..............................................................................................78<br/>— Valuation ...............................................................................................82</p><p>Summary and investment case<br/>We initiate coverage of Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan (Zhongjin Lingnan) with a<br/>Buy rating, Western Mining with a Buy rating, and Yunnan Chihong (Chihong)<br/>with a Sell rating. We believe Zhongjin Lingnan will best weather the current<br/>weak zinc and lead market fundamentals and outperform peers, with its<br/>management expertise, mining and smelting capacity expansion and strong byproduct<br/>prices.</p><p></p><p> 235800.pdf (1.08 MB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)

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瑞士银行——中国铅锌行业研究报告2008年8月
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老大，我非常想买，可是您的价格也太高了。。。

50的话，我还是可以接受的。。。

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呵呵，你以为你卖黄金啊，这么贵

卖价太高，只能望洋兴叹了