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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球金属与矿产行业研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：72
【目录或简介】：
Racing ahead of fundamentals
It has been a rocky start to the year. For exchange traded metals, it has truly
been a roller coaster ride. After substantial strength during most of January,
a short and sharp pull back into February provided a trough from which
metal prices have staged a remarkable rally taking prices up by 22-50%.
Looking forward, macro forces including monetary tightening throughout
Asia, the still lingering Greek crisis and currency gyrations should ensure
continued metals volatility. In contrast, bulk commodities have been far
more predictable, starting the year strongly and not looking back.
We have raised our 2010 price forecasts by 5-32% for metals and bulks,
but our estimates indicate a 9-17% fall from current spot levels. In our
view, rebounding supply is the biggest issue confronting the bullish
commodities story at this juncture. At current prices, we believe that
virtually all aluminium, copper and zinc producers are making money. Our
preference remains in bulk commodities, where China’s import dependence
continues to grow; but at current prices, we believe iron ore is at risk of
attracting China’s marginal capacity back on line.
Against consensus estimates for 2010, we are 4-8% below for aluminium
and zinc, in line on copper but ahead for nickel. For bulk commodities, we
are now broadly in line with consensus.
Racing ahead of fundamentals 3
Commodities forward curve 6
Aluminium: Growing
headwind 8
Alumina: Production revival 16
Copper: Heading back to
balance, but priced in 22
Nickel: Still bullish but not
forever 30
Zinc: Where should it all go? 38
Ferrochrome: Tight supply 44
Iron ore: Under a new regime 50
Coking coal: Further upside
likely 54
Thermal coal: Markets
tightening 56
Commodities consumption
trends 62
Macro indicators 64
HSBC equity indices
performance 65
China demand indicators 66
Disclosure appendix 70
Disclaimer 71
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