加拿大丰业银行：新一代生物燃料行业研究报告2009年1月

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Investment Summary
R E P O R T O B J E C T I V E S
This biofuel report’s objectives are to: (1) update our 2005 coal gasification, 2006 ethanol and biodiesel,
and 2007 DME reports; (2) determine the current 2009 supply and demand for both first-generation
ethanol and biodiesel and their outlook through 2012; and (3) take a much deeper look at the progress of
leading second-generation ethanol, biodiesel,
butanol, and other biofuel technologies and what is
still required for them to reach commercial success.
When that occurs, we believe the use of food for
fuel will begin to fall.
The announcement and implementation of numerous
renewable fuel mandates in various countries is still
increasing the demand for food-based biofuels
entering 2009. In 2006, we initially estimated that
25% of all incremental food demand would be used
in biofuels production. According to Mosaic’s CEO,
it was closer to 33%, increasing the use of fertilizers
and yield-enhancing technology (Exhibit 1). Foodbased
ethanol demand is still expected to grow at
about 12% per year and biodiesel demand is
expected to grow at 16% per year through 2012
(Exhibits 2 and 3). This, in turn, adds to the moral
dilemma of using food for fuel while poor people go
hungry or starve.

The Choice of Next-Generation Biofuels January 2009
1
Contents
Investment Summary 4
Report Objectives 4
CO2 Emissions 4
Biofuels, Gasifiers, and Alternative Fuels Conclusions 5
EU Approves CO2 Reduction Goals 6
U.S. Greening a “Moonshot” 6
U.S. Financial Pressure 7
New U.S. GHG Goals 7
Green Appointments 8
Future Canadian Biofuel Equity Financing 8
Scotia Biofuel Observations/Conclusions 9
Worldwide Biofuel Supply & Demand 10
Ethanol Market Forecast 13
Biodiesel Market Forecast 13
2009 Worldwide Biofuel Mandates 14
First-Generation Ethanol Update 18
Issues 18
First-Generation Ethanol Costs 18
First-Generation Ethanol Feedstock Supply Developments 19
First-Generation Major U.S. Ethanol Players 20
Canadian First-Generation Ethanol Players 21
Brazil’s First-Generation Ethanol Players 22
European First-Generation Ethanol Players 22
Second-Generation Ethanol: Cellulosic 24
CO2 Emission Advantage 24
Cellulosic Ethanol Technology and Processes 26
Cellulosic Costs 29
Second-Generation Bioethanol Players 30
E85 Ethanol Blend Fuel 33

First-Generation Biodiesel 35
EU 35
United States 35
Canada 35
Biodiesel Process 36
First-Generation Biodiesel Costs 37
U.S. Biodiesel Tax Incentive 39
Canadian Biodiesel Players 39
U.S. Biodiesel Players 39
Brazil’s Major Biodiesel Player 40
Europe’s Biodiesel Players 40
Quality Issues 41
Car and Truck OEM Reactions 41
U.S. CARB 41
U.S. EPA 42
First-Generation to Second-Generation Biodiesel Feedstock Risks 43
Emerging Non-Food-Based Biodiesel Feedstock 43
Jatropha Oil 44
Algae 44
Biobutanol Alcohol 54
Biomethanol 56
Biomass to Aviation Fuel 56
BioSolids to Fertilizer 57
Biofuels to Hydrogen 57
Gasification (IGCC) Update 58
Scotia Gasification Observations/Conclusions 58
Gasification Capacity 58
Biomass Blending 59
Biomass Gasification 60
Coal-to-Methanol (CTM) 61
Methanol-to-Gasoline 62
Coal-to-Liquids (CTL) 62
Fischer-Tropsch (FT) 63
Syngas-to-Olefins 63
Underground Coal Gasification (UCG) 64
New Canadian Gasification Projects 64
New U.S. Gasification Projects 66
Other Emerging Coal-to-Fuel Technologies 66
CO2 Capture from Air 67

DME Update 68
Bio-DME Evolves 70
Appendix 1: Biofuels Mandates 71
Appendix 2: Integrated Biorefinery 73
Appendix 3: Additional Algae Players 74
Appendix 4: Heat Content of Various Materials 75
Appendix 5: Conversion Table 76

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