法国兴业银行：欧洲电力设备行业研究报告2009年1月

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Electrical Equipment
T&D to outperform Power Generation
Underweight
Stock selection
Preferred
Siemens
Least preferred
Emerson
􀁑 Sharp capex cutbacks The current recession is already leading to declines in electricity
demand and looks likely to trigger capex cuts by utilities. In Europe, Enel (Buy, TP €6.5) has
cut its 2008-10 capex programme by 29%, South Africa has cancelled its nuclear
programme given the magnitude of the upfront investment, while most recently Shanghai
Electric (no rating) in China issued a profit warning as its customers delayed projects. We
expect capex cutbacks to be announced with Q4 results and estimate power orders could
fall by around 30% in 2009.
􀁑 T&D offers better resilience Against this backdrop we have a clear preference for the T&D
industry over Power Generation. For utilities in mature markets, T&D projects offer a lower
risk profile given the smaller upfront investment, shorter payback period and guaranteed
regulated returns. The Power Generation boom is set to flow into T&D. At present 600 GW of
power capacity is under construction across the world. As this capacity comes to completion
it will be connected to the grid, boosting transmission investment. In China alone the
investment gap between grid and power generation was CNY700bn (€80bn) between 2001
and 2007 (Source: ABB).
􀁑 And mid term growth prospects In the coming eight years, the IEA estimates there will be
28% more spending on T&D than on Power Generation. One key driver is the changing
energy mix. As the power network uses more renewable energy, the more T&D intensive it
becomes given the remote and intermittent nature of renewable energy. As a rule of thumb,
every 10 miles of Transmission investment requires additional spending of $30m. Longer
term, the growing stature of energy efficiency as an effective method to cut CO2 emissions
represents another opportunity for T&D while a clear threat for traditional Power Generation.
􀁑 Favour ABB over Alstom: We favour ABB, the No. 1 player in the T&D industry, over Alstom,
the No. 3 player in the Power Generation market. We consider ABB to be a lower risk
investment with more attractive long-term perspectives, and anticipate positive newsflow
surrounding the presentation of its cost-cutting plans on 12 February. Alstom on the other
hand is particularly exposed to large contracts and continues an expansionist strategy.
􀁑 Diving into the world of power: In a similar fashion to our September 2008 report “Diving into
the world of automation” link, we also use this report to revisit the power industry basics and
the market positioning of the world’s ten largest Power Generation and T&D companies.

Contents
4 Sector anatomy – presentation of the sector
5 Sector anatomy – performance and valuation
6 Sector – leading indicators
7 Investment summary: T&D to outperform PG
9 Favour ABB over Alstom
12 Capex trends now at risk
18 Power Generation faces higher risk
22 T&D offers better resilience
29 Transmission and Distribution basics
38 Power Generation basics
47 ABB
49 Alstom

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2009-1-25 01:47:00 上传

法国兴业银行：欧洲电力设备行业研究报告2009年1月
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