<p>20 January 2009<br/>Greek and Cypriot Banks<br/>Classical Greek credit tragedy?<br/>Rec &amp; TP changes<br/>Carlos Berastain Gonzalez<br/>Research Analyst<br/>(34) 913355971<br/><a href="mailto:carlos.berastain@db.com">carlos.berastain@db.com</a><br/>Thibault Nardin<br/>Research Analyst<br/>(44) 20 754 11521<br/><a href="mailto:thibault.nardin@db.com">thibault.nardin@db.com</a><br/>Greek and Cypriot banks, a mixed bag...but overall we are negative<br/>This report changes ratings, price targets and estimates for the banks in our<br/>coverage universe, mainly as a result of our more cautious view on Greece,<br/>Cyprus and Emerging Europe (see page 5 for a summary). We rate Alpha (E8.1)<br/>and Marfin (E2.4) as Buy; Piraeus (E4.4), Agricultural (E0.8) and Bank of Cyprus<br/>(E2.4) as Sell; and EFG Eurobank (E5.3) and NBG (E13.8) as Hold.<br/>Deutsche Bank AG/London<br/>All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local<br/>exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche<br/>Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm<br/>may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single<br/>factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research<br/>is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at<br/><a href="http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch">http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch</a> or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE<br/>LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.<br/>Forecast change<br/>Top picks<br/>Marfin Popular Bank (MRBr.AT),EUR1.75 Buy<br/>Alpha Bank SA (ACBr.AT),EUR5.50 Buy<br/>Companies featured<br/>National Bank of Greece (NBGr.AT),EUR11.50 Hold<br/>2007A 2008E 2009E<br/>EPS Adjusted (EUR)3.08 3.02 1.86<br/>P/E Adjusted (x) 15.2 3.8 6.2<br/>EFG EuroBank (EFGr.AT),EUR4.80 Hold<br/>2007A 2008E 2009E<br/>EPS Adjusted (EUR)1.65 1.51 0.64<br/>P/E Adjusted (x) 14.6 3.2 7.5<br/>Alpha Bank SA (ACBr.AT),EUR5.50 Buy<br/>Alpha Bank SA (ACBr.AT),EUR5.50 Buy<br/>2007A 2008E 2009E<br/>EPS Adjusted (EUR)1.80 1.56 1.04<br/>P/E Adjusted (x) 13.8 3.5 5.3<br/>Piraeus Bank (BOPr.AT),EUR5.48 Sell<br/>2007A 2008E 2009E<br/>EPS Adjusted (EUR)1.72 1.60 0.23<br/>P/E Adjusted (x) 15.5 3.4 23.9<br/>Agricultural Bank of Greece (AGBr.AT),EUR1.28Sell<br/>2007A 2008E 2009E<br/>EPS Adjusted (EUR)0.18 0.08 -0.08<br/>P/E Adjusted (x) 20.7 15.3 -15.6<br/>Bank of Cyprus Group (BOCr.AT),EUR2.39 Sell<br/>2007A 2008E 2009E<br/>EPS Adjusted (EUR)0.87 0.85 0.45<br/>P/E Adjusted (x) 14.4 2.8 5.3<br/>Marfin Popular Bank (MRBr.AT),EUR1.75 Buy<br/>Marfin Popular Bank (MRBr.AT),EUR1.75 Buy<br/>2007A 2008E 2009E<br/>EPS Adjusted (EUR)0.44 0.49 0.30<br/>P/E Adjusted (x) 20.9 3.6 5.9<br/>Global Markets Research Company<br/>The end of the growth story: Credit quality to jeopardize earnings generation<br/>Our main ST/MT concerns relate to Emerging Europe, where some banks are<br/>heavily exposed, and where capital outflows, banking system over-leverage and<br/>FX lending could have dramatic consequences for banks. Although in Greece,<br/>government intervention has provided banks with sufficient capital and liquidity,<br/>neither Cyprus nor Greece, with its structurally weak economy, will likely be<br/>immune to the global economic slowdown. In this new environment we expect<br/>banks’ profitability and capital to be under pressure, driven by a deceleration in<br/>banking activity, but more importantly a severe deterioration of credit quality. This<br/>should ultimately lead to much higher provisioning and lower earnings generation,<br/>something we believe consensus is underestimating.<br/>Domestic consolidation: Necessary consequence of a tougher environment?<br/>We believe that the upcoming difficulties Greek banks will face and the need to<br/>tackle decreasing profitability could very likely trigger domestic consolidation.<br/>Preferred and least preferred stocks in our universe<br/>Our top picks are Alpha Bank (Buy) and Marfin (Buy) given their relatively high<br/>earnings power, lower exposure to Emerging Europe, solid capital bases,<br/>undemanding valuations and lower-than-peers’ percentage downside to<br/>consensus earnings. Our least preferred stocks besides BOC (Sell) are Piraeus<br/>(Sell) and Agricultural (Sell). We expect both banks to report losses in 2009-10, and<br/>they both offer the largest potential downside to consensus. It is worth<br/>highlighting Piraeus’ high exposure to CEE coupled with a relatively poor<br/>provisioning level. Neither bank trades at a sufficient valuation discount to the<br/>sector. Last, we view BOC’s Sell rating as a relative call vs. Marfin, the other<br/>Cypriot bank – the deciding factor being BOC’s weaker core capital ratios (6%<br/>08E) and the high chances of its raising capital.<br/>EFG (Hold)/NBG (Hold): Concerns prevent us from rating them differently<br/>Although solid banks, their higher-than-peers exposures to Emerging Europe (in<br/>particular, to some of the riskier countries) and to consumer credit (mainly EFG) is<br/>worrisome – their valuations are not attractive enough to overcome these<br/>concerns. We view NBG’s recent out-performance and the unanimous positive<br/>market view on the stock as an opportunity to switch out into Marfin or Alpha.<br/>Valuation and risks<br/>We set our new TPs using P/TE multiple model. The main risks relate to economic<br/>developments in Greece, Cyprus and Emerging Europe and the impact of these<br/>developments on activity and credit quality (full details on pages 8 and 11-12).</p><p>Table of Contents<br/>Executive summary ........................................................................... 4<br/>Valuation, financials and risks.......................................................... 5<br/>Credit quality and cost of risk ........................................................ 13<br/>Greece .............................................................................................. 22<br/>Cyprus............................................................................................... 31<br/>European emerging markets .......................................................... 39<br/>Capital and liquidity ........................................................................ 50<br/>Domestic consolidation: How necessary and likely is it? ............ 56<br/>Appendix A – FY earnings forecasts .............................................. 59<br/>Appendix B – Q4 results preview................................................... 69<br/>Company pages - RtN ..................................................................... 77</p><p></p><p>
290463.pdf
(1.49 MB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
<br/></p><p></p>
发帖
雷达卡
jg-xs1
京公网安备 11010802022788号
论坛法律顾问：王进律师
知识产权保护声明
免责及隐私声明
