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Japan's coalition government faces a keytest at parliamentary elections on Sunday as Prime Minister (PM) Shinzo Abe seekssupport for constitutional reforms.
Also known as the House of Councilors, theupper house is one of two chambers in the Diet, as the parliament is known inJapan, and half of its 242 seats are up for election.
The ruling coalition, made up of Abe's LiberalDemocratic Party (LDP) and the New Komeito Party, already holds more thantwo-thirds of the seats in the lower house, also called the House ofRepresentatives, allowing it to overrule any objections in the upper house,Societe Generale chief Japan economist Takuji Aida observed in a recent note,implying the election itself isn't a threat to Abe.
So while the coalition is widely expectedto maintain a majority on Sunday, the key focus is by how much. Two-thirds ofthe upper house is needed for Abe to start the constitutional amendmentprocess, set to be one of his key legacies alongside Abenomics—the PM'sflagship set of economic policies consisting of structural reforms as well asfiscal and monetary support.
"The election results have moreimportant political implications than an economic one," economists atinvestment bank Natixis in a report this week.
Last year, Abe proposed controversiallegislation that would significantly alter the nation's pacifist stance, whichwas adopted post-World War II. His new policies would allow militaryforces—called the Self-Defense Forces (SDFs)—to be dispatched abroad withoutpre-approval from parliament and expand the parameters for engaging in militaryaction under the doctrine of collective self-defense.
"For the pro-amendment parties (theruling coalition and some in the opposition) to gain the needed two-thirdsmajority in the upper house, they will need to win 78 seats of the 121 seats upfor re-election," said Aida.
But that could be a hurdle as Abe's reformsare deeply shunned among most citizens, who have taken to the streets in recentmonths to protest the changes.
"The results of the July Upper Houseelection are uncertain for PM Abe," Natixis said. "Abe has been quieton the unpopular constitutional revision during the election campaign. In fact,the public considers pension and health care and Abenomics more important thanthe constitution."
The ruling coalition understands this andhas thus refrained from promoting constitutional reforms in their policyagenda, leaving voters' judgment of Abenomics as the main campaign issue,stated Aida.
But Abenomics' spotty success rate isanother obstacle. In the more than three years since the policies have beenoperational, the radical program has yet to lift the country out of deflation.Data last week showed May consumer prices and household spending falling on anannual basis.
Natixis believes the coalition will securea half majority, at the very least, on Sunday.
"Because the election campaign lacks afocus, a large number of the public may not even vote. This could be a tailwindfor the coalition, because the 'undecideds and don't knows' are unlikely tovote against them. Hence, coalition is anticipated to win at least 45 seats,which would secure a 1/2 majority."
For Abe, the ideal scenario would be forthe LDP to win a single-party majority.
His term as LDP president ends in 2018 andunder current rules, he will be unable to run for re-election. But there's roomfor those rules to change, Aida pointed out.
"If the LDP wins a single partymajority in this upper house, it will strengthen his standing within the LDPand likely increase the probability of him remaining LDP president via changesin the party rules."
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