瑞士信贷：日本卡车行业研究报告2009年4月

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Auto sector (Truck)
UPGRADE RATING
Full-year results preview: upgrade ratings to
NEUTRAL


Upgrade ratings, revise TPs/forecasts: While the market appears concerned
about the risk of bankruptcy, we believe recent efforts to procure capital means
this is only limited, and that share prices already discount major losses in FY3/10.
There is no denying the depth of the downturn in both the domestic and
overseas markets, but there now appears to be an increasing possibility that
inventory adjustment in the overseas markets will run its course around June.
Accordingly, we upgrade our ratings, TPs and forecasts in the truck sector. The
main catalysts for turning positive on the sector would be a YoY increase in
domestic truck production, signaling the possibility of a conclusive move back
into the black, but currently we do not expect this to occur until October or
November at the earliest. We make the following revisions:


Isuzu Motors Ltd (7202): Upgrade to NEUTRAL from Underperform; raise TP to
¥170 from ¥100 (potential upside: +5.6%)
Hino Motors, Ltd. (7205): Upgrade to NEUTRAL from Underperform; raise TP
to ¥280 from ¥155 (potential upside: +3.3%)
Press Kogyo Co., Ltd. (7246): Upgrade to NEUTRAL from Underperform; raise
TP to ¥155 from ¥110 (potential upside: +6.9%)


Truck market: Domestic truck orders have been falling at a rate of 60-70% YoY
since fall 2008, and while they appear to have bottomed, are still well below the
break-even line. Furthermore, there appears little likelihood of a full-scale
recovery without the operation of extraordinary factors such as the introduction of
some type of government subsidy or regulatory change. In the overseas markets,
retail sales in the developing countries have not been as bad as expected, and
we expect inventory adjustment to essentially be completed by the latter part of
May or beginning of June. However, we do not expect any major upturn in
production until around Oct-Nov, when infrastructure investment in the overseas
economies starts to recover.


Possibly restructuring: Since the outlook for the domestic market is uncertain,
even if we assume an impact from government subsidies, we believe we are no
longer in an environment where the truck companies can make stable profits
over the medium to long term. Even in the overseas business, if we consider the
impact of forex trends and the pace at which the developing countries are
catching up, we believe it will be difficult to achieve the same increase in units
and earnings as previously. Until now, a merger between Isuzu and Hino has
been considered unlikely since it would result in a domestic market share of
more than 50% which might constitute an infringement of the Antimonopoly Law,
but as shown in Figure 10, even if the two companies merge, they would still only
have a global market share of around 5%. In view of the rapid changes to the
environment both at home and overseas, we expect a fundamental restructuring
at both companies.

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