东南亚种植业研究报告2009年4月

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• Upgrading CPO price. We are raising our CPO price forecasts by 21% to US$600
per tonne for 2009 and by 12% to US$660 per tonne for 2010 to account for the
persistent drought in major planting areas in South America, weaker-than-expected
CPO production, lower import duties for edible oils in India and the higher-thanexpected
CPO price in 1Q09. Our local CPO price estimates have also been raised
by 22% to RM1,950 per tonne for 2009 and 13% to RM2,150 per tonne for 2010.
• Raising target prices by 21-62%. We are raising our earnings forecasts for almost
all the regional planters under our coverage by up to 95% after factoring in our new
CPO price forecasts and lower operating costs. We are also adjusting upwards the
target prices for all the planters under our coverage by 21-62% to account for (1) the
upgrade in our earnings estimates, and (2) a higher target forward P/E multiple in
line with our recent upgrade in our target market P/Es across the region. Our
strategists in Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore have turned bullish on the equity
market in these countries.
• Five recommendation changes. In Malaysia, we are raising our call on Sime
Darby to Trading Buy from Underperform. The stock is the cheapest among the bigcap
planters and is a big gainer from the change in the market benchmark to the
FBM KLCI on 6 July. In Singapore, we are upgrading our rating for Golden Agri to
Trading Buy from Neutral due to its attractive valuations and strong liquidity. Our call
on London Sumatra has also been raised to Outperform from Neutral. Astra Agro
and Hap Seng Plantations have been upgraded to Neutral from Underperform.
• Upgrading regional plantation sector to NEUTRAL. We are turning more positive
on short-term CPO prices due to tighter inventories in key producing countries.
Given the already tight global edible oil inventories and rising regulatory risks, the
world cannot afford further crop losses from the major planting areas as it would
aggravate the tight supply situation. We are also concerned about the potential
advent of El Nino and the impact of another shortfall in soybean supplies in 2010 if
the issue of Argentina’s high export tax on soybean is not resolved. This may
worsen the already tight supply situation. In line with our more upbeat view on CPO
price and regional equity markets, we are raising our call on the regional plantation
sector to NEUTRAL from Underweight. Singapore planters are upgraded to
Overweight, the Indonesian plantation sector is raised to Neutral while the
Malaysian plantation sector remains an Underweight.

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关键词：研究报告 种植业 东南亚 Inventories Plantation 研究报告 东南亚 种植业

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