发帖
雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月东南亚农业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：64
【目录或简介】：
Action
Execution, balance sheet and working capital will become the focus as we mark the
beginning of earnings season, in our view. While Noble and Olam should deliver
strong growth, Wilmar may get impacted by higher debt cost, as per our estimates.
Sideways movement of CPO should continue, which will be a drag on plantation
stocks. Indonesian planters such as GGR and IndoAgri should also take a pause
having outperformed YTD. Reiterating BUY calls on Noble, Olam ahead of results.
Catalysts
CPO price weakness post Latin American soybean harvests could put pressure on
plantation valuations. We remain bearish on Malaysian upstream.
Anchor themes
Themes that will likely dominate the soft commodity space in 2010F are China/India
consumption story, food inflation, weather patterns, US dollar and crude oil
movements, and business restructuring of Singapore-based commodity players.
Earnings to drive further re-rating
Earnings delivery to continue for midstream
Midstream processors delivered strong earnings in 4Q09, supporting our positive
view. We believe that these players will continue to deliver earnings growth through
strong volumes and margins. Corporate actions should provide further re-rating
catalysts, in our view. We still prefer the midstream space with our BUY
recommendations for Noble and Olam. Although our long-term view on Wilmar is
positive, near-term quarterly results may not be very exciting.
Balance sheet will decide the eventual winner, in the near term
Aggressive capex, M&A activity and rising working capital requirements make the
balance sheet health and funding availability important, in our view. A funding
crunch may lead to risk of dilution. Here, we prefer Noble, where gearing is low and
cash is abundant as a result of capital-raising last year. For Wilmar, although net
gearing is low, the free cash available is limited, considering ~90% of its cash is
either pledged as margin money with banks or of long-term maturity. Olam has the
highest leverage and worst working capital cycle out of these three, in our view.
Commodity space corrected a bit, Golden Agri best performer
Notwithstanding all the noise about food inflation, the soft space remained weak
over the last month, with only vegetable oils ending in positive territory, helped by
strength in crude oil YTD. Tea and coffee have corrected the most, while US
soybean meal has done well, up 6.4%. From a stock perspective, Indonesian
planters have delivered the highest gains YTD, rising 17.6% as against processors’
9.7% gain and Malaysian planters’ 6.1% rise. Crushing margins remain strong and
refining margins turned around — positive for Wilmar.
Tug-of-war for CPO, will continue to trade sideways
We recently flagged that the CPO price was at parity to soybean oil prices — a
scenario that historically has not been sustainable. The USDA raised its soybean
harvest forecast again, which should pull down oil prices when it gets crushed. On
the other hand, strong crude oil prices and weakness in the US dollar threaten to
pull CPO prices upwards. We believe strong soybean harvests and an improving
weather outlook in Malaysia should alleviate risks of supply shocks from Malaysian
CPO output, capping any outperformance in CPO prices. Thus, we maintain our
CPO price assumption of RM2,500/mT for 2010/11F. Our short-term CPO model
also forecasts weakness in CPO prices at RM2515/mT in May.
Contents
Nomura ASEAN Soft Commodity Team 4
Earnings to continue drive re-rating for midstream, BUY ahead of
results 5
Commodity weakness continues, Indonesian planters have led performance YTD 5
What to expect in quarterly results? Midstream to continue with strong earnings
growth, Noble to lead the way 5
The one who has the best balance sheet, may win 6
Potential upside to street earnings and upgrades, possible 7
Much ado about nothing, working capital concerns largely overdone 7
For CPO, tug of war continues, may break out in either direction 8
CPO price still at par with soybean oil — a ceiling for CPO 9
Maintain preference for midstream processors over plantation operators; Noble is
our top pick 9
Jan-Mar 2010 quarter earnings preview – Noble, Olam and Wilmar 10
Round-up of March-April 11
Oilseeds post gains; breakfast commodities deliver negative returns 11
Thai agri/food companies and Indonesian planters top performers 11
Consensus upgrades continue, led by Thai food players 11
Major news-flow for the month 12
CPO inventories to be seasonally tighter in April-May; weather conditions
improving gradually 12
Malaysian planters lag regional peers in share performance 12
Current CPO strength not purely a question of supply and demand; crude oil and
US dollar still influencing CPO prices 13
Maintaining CPO price assumption of RM2,500/mT for 2010-11F 14
Industry refining margins rise after the drop last month 14
USDA continues to revise soybean production forecasts; higher stock usage
ratios imply lower 2H oil and meal prices 14
China soybean crushing margins stable, led by strong soybean oil prices 15
Sugar price still weak, with possible further downside; rubber demand growth and
poor production supporting prices 16
Valuation snapshot 17
The ups and downs 22
Oilseeds post gains; breakfast commodities deliver negative returns 22
Thai agri/food companies and Indonesian planters top performers 23
Sri-Trang Agro leads returns again; China downstream stocks weak 25
Consensus upgrades continue, led by Thai food players 27
Ears to the ground 29
Important events/news flow summary 29
Company news flow summary 31
Client marketing feedback 33
Highlights of our published research 34
Key earnings announcements 35
Commodity snippets 36
Palm oil 37
What you need to know for the month of April-May 37
Short-term CPO price model 41
Soybean, soy meal and soy oil 42
USDA raises oilseed production outlook led by soybeans 42
Stock usage ratios for soybean meal and oil to increase in 2009/10F, downward
pressure on prices likely 42
Strong outlook on South American soybean harvest reconfirmed; US soybean
plantings expected higher 44
Brazil’s soybean exports revised higher; China’s imports to rise further 45
Crushing volumes to increase going forward; China leads estimate revision 45
China demand to grow in 2009/10F; imports account for most of its oil
requirements 47
China soybean crushing margins stable, led by strong soybean oil prices 48
Grains — rice, wheat and corn 50
Grain consumption to grow in 2009/10F; grain output to decline 50
Indian rice production and consumption to fall in 2009/10F 51
Thai rice output in 2010F may decline due to drought 51
EU to lead wheat production shortfall, while India to lead demand growth 52
US corn production to grow; Argentina to account for a larger share of exports 52
Rubber and sugar 54
Global natural rubber consumption to reach 14.0mn tonnes in 2019 54
Thai rubber exports expected to remain strong 54
Sugar prices correct slightly on expectations of higher output 54
Appendix: monthly weather update 56
Valuation methodologies 57
Risks to price target 59
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
