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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月东南亚农业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：56
【目录或简介】：
Contents
Nomura ASEAN Soft Commodity Team 3
Staying the course: sell planters on CPO strength, buy the
processors 4
Across-the-board commodity correction led by strong US dollar 4
Agri-related sectors underperformed; beta plays hardest hit 4
Consensus upgrades continue, led by Thai agri players 5
Palm oil inventories fall as production enters seasonal lows 5
CPO price recovery from crude oil strength 6
Refining margins see pressure of strong CPO prices 6
USDA raised its soybean production and meal stock usage ratio forecast,
indicating pressure on prices in 2H10F 6
China demand holding well; crushing volumes to increase substantially going
forward 7
China soybean crushing margins have started to correct, reflecting concerns on
increasing soy meal and soy oil supply 7
Run-up in food inflation should benefit processors and planters 8
Lack of near-term catalysts for processors a concern 9
Rising interest in other commodities like grains, rubber, sugar 9
What to expect in the current results season (4Q CY09) for upstream planters
and processors 9
Valuations imply bargain hunting; we still prefer midstream processors to
plantation operators 10
Valuation snapshot 11
The ups and downs 16
Across-the-board commodity correction led by strong USD 16
Agri-related sectors underperformed; beta plays hit hardest 17
Indonesian planters, China downstream and processors see biggest drops 19
Consensus upgrades continue, led by Thai agri players 21
Ears to the ground 23
Important events/news flow summary 23
Company news flow summary 25
Client marketing feedback 27
Key earnings announcements 28
Highlights of our published research 29
Commodity snippets 30
Palm oil 31
Malaysian inventories recede from December highs, crude oil supporting prices 31
Malaysian CPO inventories receded with exports and weaker production 32
Short-term CPO price model 35
Soybean, soy meal and soy oil 36
USDA increases its oilseeds and soybean production outlook 36
Soy meal and soy oil stock usage ratios see major upward revisions, indicating
pressure on prices going forward 36
Visibility on South American harvest improves 38
Argentina to lead soybean export growth; China imports likely to remain strong 39
Crushing volumes to increase substantially going forward 39
China demand holding up; imports account for most of its oil requirements 41
China soybean crushing margins have started to correct, reflecting concerns on
increasing soy meal and soy oil supply 42
Grains — rice, wheat and corn 44
Grain production to lag consumption growth 44
Poor monsoon in India bad for rice production 45
EU to lead wheat production shortfall, while India demand to pick up substantially 46
Argentina’s corn exports to grow; production to fall in the EU 47
Rubber and sugar 48
Thai rubber exports expected to remain strong 48
Sugar prices to surge on lower volumes 48
Valuation methodologies 50
Risks to price target 51
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