China Transportation Chartbook
The Recovery is Unfolding
􀂾 China GDP took the lead in recovery (up 6.1%-7.9% in 1Q-
2Q09), lending strength to transportation plays with high
domestic exposure.
􀂾 As we expected, air passenger traffic was the first to recover
since early 2009; the recovery trend could be gaining momentum
in 2H09 on further GDP recovery, a low base in 2H08, and a
potential recovery in international travel demand.
􀂾 Improving PMI and less severe volume declines should bode
well for export-related transportation plays, such as shipping and
ports.
􀂾 We expect volume recovery to be further boosted in early
2010, as the potential revival of external demand could push
China transportation to a higher stage.
􀂾We expect the shipbuilding industry to see a weaker recovery,
capped by the existing large backlog. The new-building price
should decline further to find its bottom, we believe.


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