汇丰银行：欧洲传媒行业研究报告2008年2月

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We think the various sub-sectors in European media will have
hugely different fortunes in 2008, which, in our view, creates a
number of opportunities for investors.
 We believe that cyclicality and the economic backdrop are the key
areas to monitor this year, but this does not mean that panic
selling the entire sector is the right approach. In fact, we believe
that there are several bargains to be found in European media,
offering both stability in a downturn and attractive valuations.

Bargains to be found for investors who look hard enough…
Volatility in early 2008 has led cyclically perceived names to underperform dramatically, but we think
that in some of these cases cyclicality is a misconception, and in other instances we think structural
factors are more important. We therefore see a degree of mis-pricing in current media spreads, leaving
several compelling investment opportunities.
…but not on a sector-wide basis
That said, the media sector is by no means a buy across the board, and we would be wary of names that
have genuine cyclical characteristics – as always, name selection is key.

Focus on economics
Our economists predict weakness in the UK and US this year, but no global recession in 2008. This is the
base case for our media sector recommendations, but we also consider the likely impact that a more
severe economic backdrop would have on the issuers and discuss this potential scenario throughout
this report.
Structural factors are more important than the cycle in many cases
Clearly, issuers most exposed to advertising are the most vulnerable to the expectation of a weaker economy,
and of these, we are most concerned by names with a dependence on property and retail adspend. Financial
services publishing is also an area that we expect to come under pressure in 2008. The advertising agencies,
however, should benefit from both the Olympics and the US presidential election.
In many cases we think structural factors will be more important than the cycle this year. We expect good
structural growth from the video game sector, and European Pay-TV is still under-penetrated. On the
other hand, we continue to witness a shift in adspend away from traditional media as well as the
proliferation of digital formats weighing on the publishing, music and DVD sectors.
We examine both the structural and cyclical influences shaping European media in this report, starting
with the broadly influential Advertising backdrop on page 7. We also outline our expectations for the
Advertising Agency (page 9), Broadcasting (page 11), Consumer Publishing (page 14), Professional
Publishing (page 17) and Physical Media (page 22) markets in 2008, as well as discussing how each of
these would fare in a recession.
Marketweight euros, underweight sterling
Given the mixed outlook for different media issuers, it is tough to generalise, but we recommend being
underweight on sterling media given the concentration of advertising-driven, UK-focused issuers, while
we see more value in euros, leaving us marketweight.
Our favourite names are:
 Vivendi
 BSkyB
 WPP
We would avoid:
 Daily Mail
 Wolters Kluwer
 Bertelsmann
We outline our recommendations more fully on all the media issuers from page 30 and provide full credit
profiles on each name from page 33.

目录

European Media 4
European Media in 2008 4
But what if the economy turns…? 6
Advertising backdrop 7
Advertising agencies 9
Broadcasting 11
Pay-TV 12
Free-to-air 12
Consumer publishing 14
UK Newspapers 14
Books 15
Professional publishing 17
US Education 17
Financial Services 18
Legal and Tax 19
B2B 19
Scientific publishing 20
Healthcare 21
Physical Media 22
Music 22
DVDs 23
Video Games 24
Event risk 25
M&A risk 25
Takeover risk 25
Break-up risk 26
Securitisation 26
New issuance outlook 27
Relative value 28
Credit profiles 33
Bertelsmann AG 34
British Sky Broadcasting plc 36
Daily Mail & General Trust plc 38
ITV plc 40
Pearson plc 42
Publicis Groupe SA 44
Reed Elsevier plc 46
SES SA 48
Thomson SA 50
Vivendi SA 52
Wolters Kluwer NV 54
WPP plc 56

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