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Momentum picks up 3
In this note we analyse semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industry data
for July, which has shown further improvement, and confirm our positive view of the
sector.
Monthly semiconductor statistics 5
The 3MMA semiconductor sales for July dropped 18.2% yoy but grew 5.3% mom,
reflecting continued recovery across product categories. We maintain our forecasts
for 3Q09 (US$57.4bn, down 16.7% yoy but up 11% qoq) and FY09 (US$212.5bn,
down 14.5% yoy).
Inventories continue to decline 16
Our analysis of inventory data from 99 companies across the supply chain indicate
continued destocking. Positive surprises in sales and margins appear likely in
3Q09.
Maintaining our industry sales forecasts 21
July WSTS data was in line with our 3Q09 industry sales forecast of US$57.4bn, up
11% qoq. We forecast FY09 industry sales at US$213bn, down 14.5% yoy, followed
by a 12.5% yoy increase to US$239bn for 2010.
Monthly memory statistics 25
DRAM and NAND flash memory sales continued to grow sequentially in July, on
higher volumes and ASPs. Near-term shipments and ASPs are likely to remain
strong on increasing demand from PC and smartphone markets.
Monthly semiconductor equipment data 29
July data reveals continued strong growth in bookings at chip equipment makers in
North America (up 62% mom) and Japan (up 23% mom). We maintain our 2009
semiconductor industry capex forecast at US$24.8bn, down 43.3% yoy.
SEMI: North American book-to-bill ratio above 1x in 30 months 29
SEAJ: Japanese book-to-bill ratio increases to 1.34x 31
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