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【出版时间及名称】：2009年10月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：38
【目录或简介】：
Residential GFA sales increased 17.2% MoM, while ASP decreased 11.2% MoM
in September, due to higher contribution from Tier-II cities. Tier-I cities saw visible
sales weakness with an average volume decline of 20% MoM. Recent weekly
volumes in October saw consecutive increases after a poor start in the first two
weeks during the traditional National Day. Meanwhile, new construction starts
increased 53% YoY in September, supported by strong YTD sales. We expect
market supplies to increase after 2Q10.
January–September 2009 residential GFA sales rose 46.4% YoY
Total residential GFA sales in China for 9M09 reached 537msqm, about 24%
higher than the same period in 2007. Among the 14 major cities, seven showed
MoM volume increases, while the other seven showed 1.1-38.5% MoM volume
declines. Beijing, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Wuhan, and Shanghai saw volume declines
of above 10% MoM. We expect October monthly sales volume to be higher than
the same periods in 2007 and 2008, but lower than June 2009. We further expect
sales volume to remain robust for Tier-II cities due to lower home price, better
affordability and higher owner-occupied demand than large cities.
New construction starts hit 81msqm; year-end rush to lock in tax savings
Overall market supply remains tight in China. This trend should provide short-term
support to home prices, in our view. However, new construction starts improved
significantly in September, with a MoM increase of 26%. We expect market
supply to increase after 2Q10. Overall sales volume for the October National Day
week was disappointing. The past two weeks saw buyers return to the market to
take advantage of tax incentive before its expiration by year-end. We believe the
year-end housing purchase rush will likely support short-term transaction volume.
We expect policies to focus on enforcement with declining incentives
We expect the government to focus on tighter second-home mortgage policies,
gradual removal of supportive measures and prevention of land hoarding. A tighter
second-home mortgage policy would be aimed at curbing speculative housing
demand and stabilizing home prices. Meanwhile, the policy of preferential
treatment for the first mortgage remains unchanged. Prevention of land hoarding
should discourage developers from acquiring land aggressively and stabilize land
costs. A government policy on new constructions will also boost future supply.
Lack of positive catalysts for the sector; stay Underweight
We expect property prices and volumes to remain robust, but we see no positive
catalysts to drive up sector valuation. We estimate developers have raised about
US$4.5bn in financing over the past ten months. We expect more developers to
tap the capital market for fund-raising. Increasing liquidity need of developers and
rising land costs will likely dampen investor sentiment. We expect 2009 GFA sales
to reach 755msqm, 10% higher than in 2007. The China property sector has
underperformed the benchmark for 3Q and we expect this trend to continue in 4Q.
We recommend investors to Underweight the sector.
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