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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：星展银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：27
【目录或简介】：
Key financials trimmed after imputing new
assumptions. Following the recent tightening, we expect
property prices in tier I cities to fall by 20%-30% and sales
volumes by 30%-40%. Other cities could see prices shrink
10%-20% and volumes by 20%. After imputing revised
assumptions, we cut FY10F EPS by between 1% and 67%
(18% average), and FY11F EPS by between 5% and 56%
(16% average). Our FY10F NAV forecasts are also cut by
between 1% and 32% (13% average), and target prices
by between 13% and 43% (24% average) following the
above changes and after imputing higher risk premium.
Downgrade Shui On Land to HOLD. Shui On Land has
locked in 11% of our revised contracted sales, the lowest
among peers. We are concerned about its ability to meet
its 2010 sales target given the slower market ahead. Most
of its homebuyers are cash-rich and do not rely much on
mortgages, but the overall market slowdown could also
cause rich homebuyers to stay sidelined.
No longer cheap after NAV/EPS revision. Sector
valuations are now at 12X FY11 P/E, 36% discount to
NAV, and 1.1X FY11 P/B (against 2008 trough valuations
of 7X P/E, 68% discount to NAV, and 0.9X P/B). We do
not expect valuations to drop to 2008 bear market levels
due to stronger economic fundamentals in China now.
But we foresee another 10%-20% downside to share
prices for the sector to trade at about 10X FY11 P/E and
50% discount to NAV. Hence, we maintain our “sell on
rebound” sector view.
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