2009年11月美国天然气行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月美国天然气行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：73
        【目录或简介】：

Diversified Natural Gas
Creating Value Multiple
Ways; WMB Is Our Top Pick
We are initiating coverage of the diversified natural
gas sector (five stocks) with an Attractive view. We
project 23% total returns through 2010 based on
average dividend yields of 3.0%, average three-year
CAGR of 12% in EPS, and constructive natural gas
market economics. EV/EBITDA trading multiples are
below historical averages, and we expect the group to
outperform the market over the next 12 months. We see
four key drivers going forward: natural gas prices,
unconventional gas shale plays, demand for
infrastructure (and processing economics), and
ownership in MLPs (four of the five have MLP interests).
Investors should position themselves to benefit
from demand for gas infrastructure and from lower
cost shale plays. Given different business lines (see
matrix at right) in this universe, we believe investors will
be rewarded through exposure to: 1) the ongoing need
for new pipelines and processing infrastructure; and 2)
low-cost, high-reserve unconventional shale plays on
the Exploration and Production (E&P) side. We believe
these traits will generate double digit earnings growth
over the next two years.
Overweight WMB: Best positioned for growth from
midstream, E&P, and pipelines. We estimate that
WMB’s current stock price implies only $6.60 per share
of value for its E&P segment, below our valuation of
$13.30. Our rating is supported by: 1) Midstream – a
stronger oil versus natural gas price environment; 2)
E&P – growing production in the Piceance Basin and
exposure to the Marcellus Shale; and 3) Pipelines –
steady cash flow from strategically located assets. We
see WMB’s earnings growing 33% through 2011.
Underweight OKE: A valuation call. While a vast
natural gas liquids (NGLs) and pipeline network
underpin steady results, we believe this is priced into the
stock. OKE is heavily driven by its ownership in OKS
(an MLP), and its current price implies a 14.0x multiple
on its general partner (GP) cash flow versus peer
averages of 13.2x.

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