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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月中国天然气行业研究报告
【作者】：美林
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：36
【目录或简介】：
Fiction one: Chinese gas price is low? Nope
Chinese integrated oil realized city gated prices (US$4.7/mmbtu on average, and
US$5-6/mmbtu in eastern coastal cities) are not low vs. global prices, especially
as we have seen general weakness in global gas prices. We are looking for a 8-
15% increase in gas prices in 2010, and see minimal scope for a general large
increase in gas prices based on the current global gas environment.
Fiction two: Shortage of gas in China? Again…no
China has a respectable amount of gas reserves (reserves life) and has added
gas reserves aggressively in the last few years thanks to huge exploration
success. China imports gas more as a strategic national service rather than for
real commercial needs. It is a misconception that China lacks gas reserves to
grow its production to meet demand. According to BP statistics, China has about
32 years of reserve life based on 2008 production, well above the US’ 11.5 years.
Assuming a 100% gas reserve replacement ratio in the next six years and that
Chinese gas demand will be 230bcm a year, China will still have above 10 years
of gas reserves – which is more than the US has.
Fact one: Chinese gas sales volume is going to grow 160%
Downstream companies will benefit from strong volume growth. With the
completion of the West-East pipeline, double digit domestic gas growth rates and
the launch of four LNG terminals, Chinese gas supply will grow from the current
90bcm a year to 230bcm a year.
Bottom line: Prefer downstream to upstream
With natural gas prices depressed globally and vast gas reserves in China, we
think natural gas price reform is unlikely to bring significant upside to prices. We
are looking for an increase of 8-15% in natural gas prices in 1H10. Downstream
players, however, such as CNPC (HK), Beijing Enterprise (BJE) and HK & China
Gas, will benefit from the booming gas volume. We lift our price objectives for
both CNPC (HK) and Beijing Enterprise.
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