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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月美国天然气行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：43
【目录或简介】：
Reduce 2010-11 NYMEX Natural Gas Outlook; TP and EPS changes. We are
lowering our 2010 NYMEX natural gas outlook to $5.25 per MMBtu (from $5.75)
and initiating a 2011 outlook of $6.50. Our long-term outlook is unchanged at
$7.00, which is aligned with our estimate for economic break-even returns. The
changed near-term view is premised on evidence of supply stabilization amid
record storage and expected weak gas-fired power demand amid plentiful coal
supplies. Our reduced forecasts are below consensus views of $6.09 for 2010
and $6.67 for 2011. We remain cautious on lightly hedged gas producers CHK
and EOG. We continue to favor producers with large scale, internally funded
growth opportunities that are focused on oil such as APA, NBL, PXD and WLL.
■
Supply Response Muted, Volumes Set to Stabilize by Q2'10. Our lower 2010
outlook reflects muted supply declines witnessed to date despite a severe drop
in drilling activity from ‘08 peaks. In fact, we estimate that Sept’09 Lower 48
production adjusted for shut-ins was down only 0.8 Bcf/d from peaks (1.2%).
Supply now appears set to stabilize sooner and at higher levels than market
onlookers had expected due to increasing investment in lower cost/higher impact
unconventional gas. We are modeling supply to plateau in Q2'10 at peak-totrough
declines of less than 2 Bcf/d vs. a typical 5-7 Bcf/d market view.
■
Producers Back to Spending! Despite stabilizing supply, producers are set to
raise spending next year to pursue growth. Reinvestment rates look to be
running above cash flow and could be as high as 110-115% on an unhedged
basis. We estimate that producers will grow 6% (volume weighted basis) in 2010.
■
Reduce 2011 Outlook on Storage Overhang, High Coal Inventories. With
gas volumes stabilizing, we forecast storage to exit the next injection season
above 2 Tcf. We also think high coal stocks are an overhang, hurting gas-fired
power demand as utilities unwind high levels of coal inventory. These factors
should delay a price recovery to a normalized $7 per MMBtu level.
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