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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月美国天然气行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：46
【目录或简介】：
Upstream investors will continue to seek exposure
to the Marcellus shale over the coming cycle, in our
view. The size (250-500 Tcf), production growth
potential (3+ Bcf/d by 2012) and robust break-even
economics (sub-$3.50/mmbtu) of the play are desirable
traits for gas resource exposure. The attractive relative
economics of the play are reinforced by its high-quality
(and improving) resource and its proximity to demand
centers in the Northeast. We see the Marcellus shale as
a game changer for US natural gas supply patterns and
cost structures, despite differences of prospectivity
across its large area (5–10x the size of the North Texas
Barnett shale play). Look for the play to displace supply
from other producing regions, particularly the Gulf Coast
and greater Mid-Continent as the Marcellus benefits
from a competitive cost structure and market proximity.
Transportation has been a limiting factor of growth,
which continues to be resolved. We see ~$5 billion in
additional midstream investments necessary to meet
expected 2015 production targets.
E&P investors need to remain value conscious and
selective in the play. We see the stocks as broadly
discounting $4k/acre, a fair acreage value considering
current resource assumptions and longer-term
commodity prices (~$6/mmbtu). We see opportunity in
earlier stage developers where the market will likely
de-risk execution over the coming 6–18 months, namely
UPL and TLM.
For midstream investors, we think it is still the early
innings of an investable theme that will bear watching
in terms of who can win projects and complete them on
time and within budget. We believe first mover
advantage has separated certain stocks (e.g., MWE and,
to a lesser extent, WPZ), but ultimately this is a play that
will have many beneficiaries and opportunities for
growth.
Inside: We present an overview of the play encompassing
all aspects of the upstream from rocks to pipes.
Contents
Gaining Exposure to the Marcellus … 3
What is the Marcellus … 9
Non-Core Marcellus Areas … 13
Differences Across Resource Plays … 15
What’s in the Price? … 18
High Returns Will Continue to Attract Capital … 20
Development Constraints … 21
Pipeline Demand and Capacity … 25
Gathering, Processing, and Storage … 29
Companies with Greatest Marcellus Exposure … 35
Industry Names … 37
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