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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月加拿大天然气行业研究报告
【作者】：TD newcrest证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：47
【目录或简介】：
TD Newcrest Junior / Intermediate Energy
Review
Gas Producers Look Poised for a Rough Year (Again)
With the Q4/09 financial reporting period complete, this edition of the TD
Newcrest Junior and Intermediate Energy Review presents our 2009 finalized
NAV estimates, as well as updated estimates, ratings and targets for our adjusted
commodity price outlook and current future strip pricing. Generally with the
sector now trading at 124% of our NAV under futures, we have a more
cautious view on the sector, with preferred names being those that are
generally oil-weighted or trading at a discount to the average P/NAV.
Highlights of the report include:
On average NAV’s increased by ~25% YoY – We estimate our after-tax, 8%
NAV estimates, under a constant price deck increased by roughly 25% YoY. We
believe the YoY increase in NAV estimates largely reflects the focus on emerging
resource plays that more than offset the fact that 2009 capital programs were in
line with cash flow for a sector that historically has spent more than cash flow.
Commodity price deck – Exhibit 1 illustrates the revisions to our commodity
price forecasts. The key change was a reduced outlook for natural gas prices.
Natural Gas Exposure – With continued weakness in natural gas prices and the
production bias to natural gas among the junior and intermediate producers, we
believe certain capital programs may be subject to pull back in 2010.
Estimate, rating and target changes – On average our 2010E CFPS (f.d.)
estimates decreased by 13% with the revised commodity prices, while our after-tax
NAV estimates decreased by an average of 16% as we reflect the future strip prices
of March 30, 2010 In general our target prices have decreased by 12% as a result
of the updated future strip pricing. In conjunction with this report we have made
one rating change: Crew is reduced to HOLD from Buy on valuation.
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