星展银行：亚洲电信行业研究报告2009年1月

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The unquestionable dividend?
In the wake of possible disappointments due to a weak
economic outlook, we favor companies whose free cash
generation is likely to exceed their dividend commitments,
implying sustainable dividends even during the worst times.
We prefer Singapore and Thailand in the light of easing
competition and lower regulatory risks. Our top picks are
StarHub, AIS and China Mobile. We believe there is downside
risk for Telekom Malaysia and China Unicom.
Higher regulatory risks in Malaysia, Indonesia but lower
risks in Thailand. We believe a downward revision in
interconnection rates is due in Malaysia and Indonesia, which
may work against the incumbents - TM International and PT
Telkom respectively. Thailand, on the other hand, has a
regulatory catalyst from the potential issue of 3G license,
resulting in cost savings from lower license fee.
Stiffer competition in Malaysia and China. Mobile tariffs
in Malaysia are significantly higher than in comparable
countries. Hence, competition in Malaysian could intensify
with the entry of new players post mobile number portability.
We hope to see more competition in China following the
issue of 3G licenses recently, although full-scale 3G launch
could take at least one year. Competition in Singapore and
Thailand seem to have eased
Free cash flow provides good handle on future
dividends even if earnings disappoint. Our analysis
indicates that PT Indosat, TM International and China Unicom
might not generate enough operating cash to meet their
capex requirements and might have to resort to external
funding. Telekom Malaysia’s operating cash flow can meet its
capex, but could fall short of its dividend commitment. The
rest of the companies should be able to fulfill their dividend
commitments for the next two years.
Recommendations. Our previous top picks, China Mobile
and DTAC have outperformed their respective markets in the
last three months. We retain China Mobile as our regional
top pick but replace DTAC with StarHub and AIS due to their
high sustainable yield and stable earnings outlook. We
recommend accumulating AIS on price weakness in the wake
of disappointing 4Q08F results. We see more downside risk
for Telekom Malaysia and China Unicom, as the market
seems over bullish on their earnings and dividend prospects.

Table of Contents
Investment Summary 1
Our expectations for various markets 3
Are Dividends Sustainable? 6
Sector Valuations 7
China Sector Update 10
Singapore Sector Update 11
Thai Sector Update 12
Malaysia Sector Update 13
Indonesia Sector Update 14
Stock Profiles
StarHub Profile 16
China Mobile Profile 18
Telekom Malaysia 20
China Unicom 22
Advance Info 24

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