2009年11月亚洲电信行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月亚洲电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：30
        【目录或简介】：

Action
October was a relatively better month for NJA telcos, with 13 out of 29 stocks
outperforming local markets. India was the main focus, with Bharti and RCOM each
down 30% m-m and 43% m-m, on competition concerns. Reporting season has
kicked off, with few surprises so far. Margins appear steady on solid cost control.
􀁡 Catalysts
In terms of our stock selection, we continue to focus on companies with low
gearing, strong cashflow, high earnings visibility and potential for a turnaround.
Anchor themes
We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on NJA telcos, given concerns over operational
and regulatory risks.
October: Carnage in India
􀁣 Aggressive price wars in India
Bharti and RCOM fell by 30-43% m-m in October and are down 18-23% YTD.
Other heavyweights including China Mobile, Telstra, KT and PT Telkom were flat,
while SingTel was dragged down by Bharti. Illiquidity at Excelcom reached an alltime
high on rights issue news, while StarHub faced a slew of downgrades. Top 3:
Excelcom, PLDT and ZTE (absolute +7-28%, relative +11-32%). Bottom 3: RCOM,
Bharti and StarHub (absolute -13-43%, relative -9-39%). YTD leaders: ZTE
(+180%, +175% vs sector), True (+93%, +89% vs sector) and Excelcom (+74%,
+69% vs sector).
􀁤 Some respite, but sector underperformance continues
October was a relatively better month for NJA telcos, with 13 out of 29 telecom
stocks outperforming their local indices. However, the Asia-ex Japan telco index
still declined by 4% m-m last month, making it the second worst performing sector.
􀁥 November: stocks in action — China Tel, RCOM, DiGi
We look for an upside surprise in subs at China Tel this month, owing to wider
EV-DO handset availability. Meanwhile, RCOM could come under pressure given
deteriorating wireless KPIs and regulatory overhang, and DiGi may see outflows,
given intra-sector rotation.
􀁦 Marketing feedback: looking for laggards
A common question among investors is if it is time to buy laggards (ie, India telcos,
Telstra, China Mobile), but conviction levels remain low. For Korea, there are still
concerns over irrational marketing. Indonesia is still a preferred market, but
catalysts are scarce. Telstra’s dividend sustainability was a discussion topic.
􀁧 Earnings revisions
Upward revisions for SingTel and KT Corp. Downward revisions for RCOM, Telstra
and SK Broadband.

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