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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月菲律宾电信行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：41
【目录或简介】：
Still more room for revenue growth: Our “activity” penetration analysis
shows that the real cellular penetration rate in the Philippines could be closer
to 65.1%, a more optimistic picture than the 81.7% subscriber penetration,
which suggests there is still more room for revenue growth. We expect the
competitive environment to ease gradually, and the decline in revenue per
activity (which is already the lowest in Asia) to slow. This, together with
additional revenue from wireless broadband services, would drive FY09-12E
wireless revenue’s CAGR of 5.9%, the fourth highest in Asia.
■
Margins could decline but cash flow should expand: We expect the
growth in the fixed cost base and a gradual shift in revenue towards
broadband to result in a ~1 p.p. decline in industry EBITDA margins during
FY09-12E. However, we believe that industry capex to sales already peaked
in FY09, and therefore expect PLDT and Globe to be able to deliver FY09-
12E operating cash flow CAGRs of 4.3% and 24.9%, respectively.
■
PLDT a defensive growth, Globe a comeback story: We maintain an
OUTPERFORM rating on PLDT with a DCF-based target price of P3,120
(20.7% potential upside). PLDT offers attractive cash flow generation (8.3%
FCF yield) and more could be returned to shareholders. Globe, in our view,
is the most leveraged for improvement in a competitive environment and
also the benefits of its recent initiatives could begin to emerge in FY10-11E.
We rate Globe OUTPERFORM on a 12-month view with a DCF-based target
price of P1,280 (34.7% potential upside).
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