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【出版时间及名称】：2009年11月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：60
【目录或简介】：
Contents
What’s changed 3
Enjoy the bubbly ride 4
Only at the start of a potential bubble 4
Policy normalisation very much priced in. Neutral stance 4
Record volume and prices likely in 2010 5
How much of a bubble? 6
Comparing China with historical bubble episodes 7
Key differentiator — China the only one where income growth has outstripped
property price growth 9
Key fundamental demand driver (1) — urbanisation 10
Key fundamental demand driver (2) — marriage household formation 11
Key fundamental demand driver (3) — increasing private home ownership 11
Affordability 12
Other arguments why China is still affordable 12
Is speculation in the property market rampant? 14
How to explain the run-up in property prices in 2004-07? 16
Conclusion 16
Policy normalisation 17
Impact of policy normalisation on first-time home buyers 20
All out supply-side measures 20
Coverage impact — policy tightening already in the price 24
2010 still likely to be a record volume and price year 24
Sizable growth in sales and profits in 2010 25
Valuation and Risks 30
Financial statements 38
Sino-Ocean Land Holdings 38
Shimao Property Holdings 40
KWG Properties 42
China Resources Land 44
China Overseas Land & Inv 46
Guangzhou R&F Properties 48
Greentown China 50
SOHO China 52
Renhe Commercial Holdings 54
Country Garden Holdings 56
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