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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：三星证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：76
【目录或简介】：
Prevailing market wisdom suggests that the China property sector faces policy risks, and that investors should wait for more clarity before investing. We think valuation is attractive and the time to buy is now.
We do not believe China is facing a property-price bubble nationwide—nor do we see excessive leveraging by homebuyers—as the country’s income growth and savings rate are both high. We also believe that most of the policy risks have been priced in.
We believe investors should focus on Agile and Sino-Ocean. We particularly like Agile as we expect Hainan home prices to overshoot in the near term thanks to favorable government policies in the area. Temporary overhang concerns at Sino-Ocean also present a good entry point for long-term investors. We also like R&F for its deleveraging, and Shimao as a Yangtze River Delta play.
WHY SHOULD YOU READ THIS REPORT? The China property sector is attractively valued in our view at around 10x 2011e P/E with 3-year EPS growth of around 30%—the stock trades at an average 30-40% discount to NAV but has received little attention due to policy risks. We expect strong transaction volume in March and April, and the sector may rerate. Despite a great year, 2009 core profit missed market expectations. We suspect this is mainly due to the timing difference between project sales and booking. We believe companies should record better ASP and margin in 2010.
WHAT HAS THE MARKET MISSED?
The China property sector has been underperforming HSCEI by 20% since 2H09
• We argue policy risks and tightening fears present opportunities to revisit the sector
We believe valuations are attractive and that investors are waiting on the sidelines for the sector to rerate
WHY DOES IT MATTER?
Agile, Sino-Ocean Land, Guangzhou R&F and Shimao appear to have priced in a 15% selling-price decline in 2010. Sino-Ocean, Shimao and R&F currently trade at around a 30% discount to our 2010 NAV, while Agile trades at around 40% discount.
Stronger 2Q project launches and anticipation of yuan appreciation may precipitate a rerating of the Chinese property sector.
We expect policy risks to ease, as transaction volume declined over January and February. Moreover, the government is focused on providing affordable homes and curbing speculative demand through differentiated tax and mortgage policies.
We also expect interest rates in China to rise in 2H, marking the end of monetary tightening and presenting buying opportunities on corrections
WHAT SHOULD YOU DO?
From a trading perspective, we expect the China property sector to present interesting opportunities given that it has been underweight since 3Q09.
Our top sector picks are Sino-Ocean and Agile, thanks to their attractive valuations and specific catalysts that may lead to rerating.
We believe that concerns over the overhang from Costco‟s possible disposal of its stake in Sino-Ocean present a good entry point and that Hainan home price are likely to overshoot in the near term thanks to favorable government policies in the area.
We also like R&F for its continued deleveraging and strong contracted sales growth, and Shimao as a play in the Yangtze River Delta region.
China Property Sector
INDEX
Investment Points
p5
Sector Fundamentals
p5
Sector Insights
p12
Sector Valuation
p17
Appendix 1: City Profiles
p22
Appendix 2: Inventory Statistics
p29
COMPANY SECTIONS
Agile Property
p31
Guangzhou R&F Properties
p42
Shimao Property
p55
Sino-Ocean Land
p66
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