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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国地产行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：48
【目录或简介】：
Underperformed the market. China’s property sector underperformed the
market by 2% in the past two trading days, due to renewed concerns on
policy risk. We maintain our view that the low possibility of drastic tightening
on property, the potential transaction volume recovery and other catalysts
should lead to a 1H10 sector rebound.
■
The latest policies still focus on land supply and public housing – old
policies proved to have minimal immediate impact. Last week’s
announcement essentially re-established the 90/70 rule, which proved
ineffective. Implementing a 20% deposit for land acquisitions should hardly
affect, if not help, listed property developers – many of which have strong
balance sheets, although financing risks for 2H10 remain.
■
SOEs stand to gain from the shift towards tendering, and the upcoming
consolidation. The government seems to believe the best way to avoid
“land kings” is to supply land via tendering rather than auction and listing, as
many SOEs tend to score higher in tendering activities. The SASAC also
plans to accelerate the consolidation of property businesses among SOEs,
which should help COLI, CR Land and Poly to acquire assets at attractive
prices and eliminate competitors for government support.
■
Near-term positive catalysts abound. The upcoming FY09 results, the
potential MoM surge of property transactions in March and the expectation
of Rmb appreciation and inflation should all serve as near-term catalysts for
a continued 1H10 rebound for the sector, in our view. COLI, Sino Ocean and
E-House remain our sector top picks.
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