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【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月欧洲重工业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：52
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 3
Introduction..............................................................................................................................3
A fresh look at what drives sales growth… ..............................................................................3
…and what drives margin expansion........................................................................................4
On yield curves, interest rates and inflation ..............................................................................5
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................5
Conclusion ...............................................................................................................................5
Scenarios for 2010 ............................................................................. 7
Defining our scenarios ..............................................................................................................7
Looking out to 2012 ..................................................................................................................8
Growth outlook ............................................................................... 10
Summary................................................................................................................................10
The credit impulse ..................................................................................................................11
The inventory de-stock/re-stock theme...................................................................................12
From GDP to IP to sector sales ..............................................................................................13
Production/purchasing manager surveys ................................................................................15
Order trends suggest late cycle markets face declines in 2010 .............................................15
The capex cycle................................................................................ 17
Mind the output gap?..............................................................................................................17
Capacity utilization – not as helpful as it first appears.............................................................18
Fixed capital formation............................................................................................................19
Interest rates, inflation, and the yield curve ................................. 21
Reflation vs. deflation..............................................................................................................21
What does the yield curve tell us? ..........................................................................................22
Interest rates – taking away the punch bowl ..........................................................................23
Moderate inflation is good for you..........................................................................................24
An update on stimulus plans.......................................................... 28
Large parts of stimulus funds remain unspent........................................................................28
Update on the United States US$787bn stimulus plan ...........................................................28
China - stimulus spending to continue into 2010 ....................................................................29
Operational gearing revisited......................................................... 33
The sector is highly operationally geared… ............................................................................33
Gearing is most evident during downturns… .........................................................................34
…and barely visible during upturns.........................................................................................34
Conclusion: it’s time to stock pick ..........................................................................................35
Valuation .......................................................................................... 36
Heterogeneous sector, homogeneous valuation ....................................................................36
How does the market value capital goods? ............................................................................36
What does CROCI tell us? ......................................................................................................37
The CROCI valuation today .....................................................................................................38
A quick look at EV/Sales..........................................................................................................38
Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................41
Valuation and risks.......................................................................... 42
Valuation and risks ..................................................................................................................42
Appendix: restructuring announcements by company................ 43
Disclosure varies but is generally poor ...................................................................................43
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