2010年3月全球重工业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球重工业研究报告
        【作者】：汇丰银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：320
        【目录或简介】：
Global sector Market-Assessed Cost of Capital
(MACC) now 9.8%, down 80bp sequentially, is
850bp below its Q4 2008 trough valuation and only
300bp up from its Q2 2007 peak. The sector
remains at or around fair value, in our view
 Sector cash-ROIC troughed in 2008 at 7.6% but
gained 200bp (to 9.6%) in 2009 fuelled by
destocking (previous peak 8.8% in 2007). Our
models assume that future median Cash-ROIC of
8.9% is 140bp better than the 10-year historical
average of 7.5%, with 75% of our coverage on a
long-term rising returns trend and 25% on a falling
trend. Emerging low-cost competition is probably
the biggest long-term threat to this view
 MACC suggests the cheapest stocks in our global
sector coverage are EADS, Volvo and Electrolux
and the most expensive are Sembcorp Marine,
ABB India and Kone
This is our 11th Market-Assessed Cost of Capital (MACC) valuation
summary for the global capital goods sector. MACC modelling is explained
in detail on p5-6. In this report, we downgrade Alfa Laval to UW and
Scania to UW(V) from N(V) (TPs SEK100 and SEK95); we raise TPs for
ABB India (to INR736), Assa Abloy (to SEK150), Boeing (to USD63),
EADS (to EUR13.6), Emerson (to USD50), Honeywell (to USD40),
Philips (to EUR28), Paccar (to USD38), Rockwell (to USD68), Rolls-
Royce (to 620p), Safran (to EUR23), Schneider (to EUR98), Siemens (to
EUR82) and Wärtsilä (to EUR38). Our key estimate revisions are for
ABB India, Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, EADS, Emerson Electric, Metso,
Philips, Rockwell Automation and Siemens.

Too much, too young? 3
Q1 2010 sector conclusions 3
Q1 2010 stock conclusions 4
MACC: what it is 5
Modelling MACC 5
Glossary 11
ABB 12
ABB India 21
Alfa Laval 31
Alstom 41
Assa Abloy 50
Atlas Copco 60
BHEL 69
Boeing 78
EADS 87
Electrolux 98
Emerson Electric 108
Honeywell International 118
Kone 129
Larsen & Toubro 138
Legrand 147
MAN 156
Metso 166
Paccar 176
Philips 186
Rockwell Automation 196
Rolls-Royce 206
Safran 217
Sandvik 225
Scania 234
Schindler 244
Schneider Electric 253
Sembcorp Marine Ltd 264
Siemens 273
SKF 284
Volvo 293
Wärtsilä 304
Disclosure appendix 315
Disclaimer 319

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