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雷达卡
【出版时间及名称】：2009年12月瑞典重工业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：42
【目录或简介】：
Table of Contents
Executive summary ........................................................................... 4
Sector to start grow strongly from H1 2010…..........................................................................4
…but medium-term a sustainable GDP recovery is needed .....................................................4
Earnings forecast upgraded – we are materially above consensus ..........................................4
We remain selectively positive .................................................................................................4
Preferred picks..........................................................................................................................5
Growth to surprise on upside .......................................................... 6
Kick-start in H1 2010…..............................................................................................................6
…but in the longer term, a sustainable GDP recovery is needed .............................................7
Mining capex – a potential swing factor to consensus forecast for Atlas Copco and Sandvik..9
The mining battle in pictures: Atlas Copco vs Sandvik............................................................11
Preference for early cycle over late cycle ...............................................................................12
From tailwind to headwind, but FX could still turn into a potential surprise factor .................13
Forecast changes – EPS raised by 12% for 2010 and 10% for 2011......................................15
We are materially above consensus .......................................................................................15
Share price performance................................................................. 17
Valuation .......................................................................................... 18
Earnings multiples remain at elevated levels ..........................................................................18
Sector dividend yield slightly below the historical mean….....................................................19
…but prospects vary greatly between companies .................................................................20
Company section ............................................................................. 23
Alfa Laval (Hold, TP SEK 95) ........................................................... 24
Late-cycle demand profile suggests inferior earnings profile..................................................24
Assa Abloy (Hold, TP SEK 140)....................................................... 26
Growth outlook remains challenging.......................................................................................26
Atlas Copco (Buy, TP SEK 120)....................................................... 28
Well-placed to benefit when demand starts to recover ..........................................................28
Hexagon (Buy, TP SEK 120) ............................................................ 30
Best-in-class end-market exposure at a discount....................................................................30
Sandvik (Hold, TP SEK 90) .............................................................. 32
A great recovery play, but reflected in valuation.....................................................................32
SKF (Buy, TP SEK 145)..................................................................... 34
A good recovery play, with further revaluation potential.........................................................34
Trelleborg (Hold, TP SEK 50) .......................................................... 36
Good earnings surprise potential, but valuation fair ................................................................36
Valuation and risks.......................................................................... 38
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