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【出版时间及名称】：2010年美国信用卡行业前景展望
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：PDF
【页数】：55
【目录或简介】：
Top 2010 picks: MA (Buy), PAYX (Sell), CATM (Buy), CSGP (Sell)
This report changes ratings, price targets, and estimates for several companies
under coverage. For a detailed listing of these changes, see page 2. MA is our top
large cap long, we raised PT to $310. We also raised V's PT to $105. We
downgraded PAYX from Hold to Sell with a $25 PT making it our top large cap
short. We raised PT for top small cap long idea CATM to $18. And CSGP is our top
small cap short for 2010, with new PT of $29. We extended forecasts for all our
companies through 2012, new basis for normalized earnings valuations.
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Forecast Change
Top picks
MasterCard (MA.N),USD253.89 Buy
Paychex (PAYX.OQ),USD31.54 Sell
Cardtronics Inc (CATM.OQ),USD10.42 Buy
CoStar Group (CSGP.OQ),USD42.42 Sell
Companies featured
MasterCard (MA.N),USD253.89 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 9.05 11.40 14.20
P/E (x) 23.5 22.3 17.9
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.5 12.4 9.6
Automatic Data Processing (ADP.O),USD42.48Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.62 2.37 2.45
P/E (x) 14.6 17.9 17.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 8.1 8.9 8.4
Cardtronics Inc (CATM.OQ),USD10.42 Buy
Cardtronics Inc (CATM.OQ),USD10.42Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 0.22 0.63 0.85
P/E (x) 32.0 16.5 12.2
CoStar Group (CSGP.OQ),USD42.42 Sell
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 1.27 0.95 0.92
P/E (x) 34.0 44.8 46.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 11.2 10.9
Global Cash Access (GCA.N),USD7.50 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 0.68 0.70 0.70
P/E (x) 7.8 10.7 10.7
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.3 8.1 6.8
Global Payments Inc. (GPN.N),USD52.04 Hold
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.24 2.45 2.80
P/E (x) 17.3 21.3 18.6
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.8 9.8 8.7
Paychex (PAYX.OQ),USD31.54 Sell
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 1.52 1.30 1.26
P/E (x) 18.6 24.3 25.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.4 12.8 14.8
DealerTrack (TRAK.OQ),USD19.24 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 0.81 0.48 0.65
P/E (x) 21.8 39.8 29.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 17.2 13.3
Visa Inc. (V.N),USD86.76 Buy
2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS (USD) 2.91 3.75 4.71
P/E (x) 20.3 23.2 18.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 10.1 11.9 9.6
Western Union (WU.N),USD19.61 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
EPS (USD) 1.31 1.26 1.36
P/E (x) 16.3 15.5 14.4
EV/EBITDA (x) 11.2 9.9 9.0
Global Markets Research Company
NETWORKS: V/MA valuation being held back by subdued outlook on consumer
MA edged out V as our top large cap long idea for 2010 on better way to play
recovery in credit card vols and travel, more exposure to Europe, and easing
headline risks, but we believe both stocks outperform the mkt (again) this yr.
V/MA should trade at least in line with broader payment comps 1.2x PEG for 2010.
But V/MA trade only at 0.8x, likely on mkt unease about consumer. Once this
comfort level improves, V/MA PEGs could hit 1.4-1.5x, in line w/ comp highs. But
we also believe big earnings upside exists, as V/MA surpass expectations
regularly, implying compelling upside price potential. We are still cautious on WU,
for which we model below trend growth for the next 2yrs and where we have
doubts about whether the multi-yr secular decline in margins can reverse, but a
change in capital allocation philosophy would help, and we are hopeful recent
dividend raise is a signal. We recently initiated coverage of GPN, which should
continue to grow faster than payments industry, but has valuation that may not be
all rightfully earned due in part to scarcity premium afforded it by the market.
PAYROLL: Multiple expansion this year may be tough given fundamental outlook
PAYX is our top large cap short idea for this yr, as getting from stabilization to
growth amidst rough climate for small biz could take longer than what is priced in,
and normalized growth may not return for processors before FY2014. Despite this
outlook, stock has held in well, as PAYX garners support as a play on rates and for
4% divs yield, but we caution against this as an investment strategy since the
earnings lift from rising yield on client float is likely minor, even if Fed starts
tightening now. Our CY2010 EPS is a dime below consensus, reflecting negligible
contribution from float, coupled with our call that an inflection point in core payroll
growth does not happen before FY2H11, as well as our view that margins could
take 3yrs to bottom, same pattern as in previous jobs cycle. PAYX trades at 25x
our CY2010 EPS, near high-end of historical P/E range, and 40% premium to ADP.
We think fair value is in mid-$20s, the basis for our Sell. We are not making an
aggressive short call on ADP despite similarly bearish outlook, as well as fact that
ADP is an even worse rate play than PAYX due to longer duration of its bond
portfolio. We think discount to PAYX is too high and could come in some if large
firms add jobs as payrolls turn positive while small employers lag recovery.
SMALL CAP PROCESSORS: Outlook is mixed
CATM is our top small cap long pick due to further upside to 2010 numbers, a
deleveraging story, and an unwarranted 15-20% discount to the comps. Now that
CEO overhang has been removed, anticipation of secondary offering could hold
back valuation. Although we believe an equity deal will happen at some point,
sponsors may be inclined to ride momentum for awhile. CSGP is our top small
cap short idea for 2010 as our concerns about size of addressable mkt have not
dissipated, and we do not think CSGP will garner any support from deteriorating
trends in most CRE property types this yr. Stock trades at 33x 2010 (ex-cash) EPS,
huge premium to other subscription businesses. CSGP’s new roll-up strategy feels
like desperate buying spree to fill in growth in a mkt that has lost its luster and
could preclude CSGP from returning to normalized margins. Our new $29 PT puts
CSGP in line with TRAK, which has better long-term growth prospects despite
being about 3yrs away from normalized margins (30%) / EPS ($1.00). GCA is finally
free to invest in new products after internal issues handcuffed the past 2yrs. But
now GCA is prisoner to woeful gaming trends and contract renewal risk in 2010.
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