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三大国际投行----摩根斯坦利+美林+高盛---2010年大宗商品市场分析
2010 Commodity Outlook
􀂄 Our top five themes
1. Worried about inflation & the cycle? Focus on gold & platinum
2. What are our favourite bull plays? Platinum, copper and oil
3. How to mitigate negative roll yields? MLCX Long Dated Index
4. Looking for a short? Focus on US nat gas, livestock ER indices
5. Need diversification? Consider the MLCX Crop Rotation Index
Gold led commodities higher in 2009 on lax money policy
Extremely easy monetary policy pushed gold prices above $1200/oz in late 2009,
dragging oil and other commodities up with it. While the leadership of gold could
continue in the short-run, an improving US and global economic outlook will
increasingly benefit cyclical commodity markets, particularly in 2H2010. Given the
BofA Merrill Lynch global real GDP growth forecast of 4.4% in 2010, we would
suggest investors to overweight energy and base metals in the coming months.
Economic recovery in 2010 favours cyclical commodities
We forecast an average WTI crude oil price of $85/bbl in 2010 and believe oil will
break through $100/bbl as we approach 2011. In addition, we see copper continui
ng to move higher, with prices averaging $7125/t in 2010 and $8000/t in 2011. We
also see platinum and, to a lesser extent gold, appreciating further next year. Our
$1500/oz target for gold over the next 18 months remains intact. Sugar, soy and
corn should support agriculture returns. We are less positive on nat gas, wheat
and aluminium returns, particularly due to the negative carry associated with
holding long rolling positions on near-dated contracts in these markets.
New MLCX indices should help mitigate negative carry costs
We expect the Fed and other G10 Central Banks to maintain a very lax monetary
policy in 1H10 to fight off deflation. In our view, an important side effect of these
policies could be further gold purchases by Emerging Market central banks. In
turn, the greatest global fiscal and monetary policy stimuli ever should result in a
sharp rise in energy and industrial metals consumption, particularly in Emerging
Markets, lending support to spot prices. Still, inventories are high and negative roll
returns could affect a number of commodity markets. We suggest investors to
consider the MLCX Long Dated TR index and the MLCX Crop Rotation TR index.
Key risks for commodities are a double-dip & protectionism
Just like it is the case for equities and other risky assets, the key downside risk for
commodities in 2010 is a double-dip in the global economy or a wave of US
protectionism that negatively impacts international trade. On the upside, a key risk
is an inflationary bubble in Emerging Markets (low rates, high liquidity). If gold or
commodities were to move up very quickly, there could be a growing risk of deanchoring
of inflation expectations. If the rise in gold or commodity prices was
matched by a rise in inflation expectations, we would be concerned that the
negative impact on risk appetite could potentially delay the cyclical recovery.
Commodities | Global
09 December 2009
Global Commodity Research
MLPF&S (UK)
Francisco Blanch +44 20 7996 4144
Commodity Strategist
MLPF&S (UK)
francisco.blanch@baml.com
Sabine Schels +1 646 855 3340
Commodity Strategist
MLPF&S
sabine.schels@baml.com
Gustavo Soares +1 646 855 4835
Commodity Strategist
MLPF&S
gustavo.soares@baml.com
Michael Widmer +44 20 7996 0694
Metals Strategist
MLPF&S (UK)
michael.widmer@baml.com
Jens Andersson +44 20 7995 2705
Commodity Strategist
MLPF&S (UK)
jens.andersson@baml.com
Tanapoom Damraks +44 20 7995 6574
Commodity Strategist
MLPF&S (UK)
tanapoom.damraks@baml.com
Chart 1: The economic recovery in 2010 favours
cyclical commodities like energy or base metals
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008
Global GDP Global oil demand
BofA ML
F'casts
Global GDP versus global oil demand growth
Source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Commodity Research
2
Commodity Strategist
09 December 2009
Contents
1. Macro overview 4
2. Commodity portfolio strategy 8
3. Index strategies for 2010 10
4. Energy outlook 16
5. Industrial metals outlook 26
6. Precious metals outlook 34
7. Agriculture outlook 40
Appendix 47
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