亚洲当前的资产泡沫化

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惠誉信评机构发布报告，探讨亚洲九个国家和地区的房市问题。报告提到:
一、
金融风暴2009年三月来到最低点之后，亚洲多数国家维持历史超低利率，由于存款利率接近于零，促使房地产成为存款族增加投资收益的主要工具，借钱投资房地产的成本也变得更便宜。中国、香港、新加坡、以及台湾处于高度警戒。
二、
中国的放款增加速度太快！2009中国新增放款十兆人民币。
三、
中国2009的GDP大幅成长，资产和股票价格强弹；丰沛的资金，也间接拉动香港和台湾的房价，资产泡沫的疑虑逐渐产生中。

报告指出，断言亚洲正经历一场会导致银行严重受损的资产泡沫危机恐言之过早，惟若相同的趋势持续到今年年底，泡沫破灭的疑虑就会加深，政府有必要加强对银行放款的管制，目前包括韩国、香港、新加坡都已经开始紧缩。

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关键词：资产泡沫化 资产泡沫 泡沫化 投资房地产 存款利率 资产 亚洲 泡沫化

China
Extremely strong credit growth in China of upwards of 30% of GDP in 2009,
combined with strong rebounds in property and equity prices, has naturally given
rise to questions about the extent to which some portion of new loans may have
been diverted into asset markets. Due to the fungibility of money, it is impossible
to identify precisely what share of lending in 2009 may have been directed into
property or equities, but a comparison of recent trends in loan growth and asset
prices would suggest more than a nominal contribution of credit to the recent
rebound in asset markets (see charts to the left). Valid arguments can be made on
both sides as to whether or not these price trends are early indicators of a creditfuelled
bubble, but regardless of the technical designation, Chinese banks have
become notably more exposed to property and equities in the wake of the 2009
credit boom, with property in particular becoming a growing area of concern.
Real Estate
Data deficiencies prevent a robust review of the real estate market in China, but
available information suggests prices are elevated in certain key markets. At the
same time, office vacancy rates indicate significant excess capacity, but again only
in certain areas. Taken together, Fitch interprets the pricing and vacancy rate data
as indicative of a potential correction looming in Chinese real estate. If this were to
materialise, Chinese banks would clearly be affected.

Hong Kong
The value of residential and commercial properties in Hong Kong plunged in H208 as
the economic recession led to higher unemployment and tight liquidity conditions in
the banking system. Consumer and investor confidence in Hong Kong was also
shaken by the global financial crisis engulfing major developed economies. However,
as banking system liquidity conditions improved and lending rates fell in H109, both
commercial and residential property values have rebounded strongly, returning to
their levels prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008.
Outstanding loans for commercial property investment/development fell by 3.7% in
the first nine months of 2009 as property developers/investors reduced their bank
borrowings in an effort to improve their risk profile. In contrast, residential
mortgage applications and approvals have reached a multi‐year high in response to
low interest rates. Although mortgage applications have increased strongly,
outstanding mortgage balance remained relatively stable, increasing by 5.3% in the
first nine months of 2009, versus a 0.1% increase in overall loans in Hong Kong.

Taiwan
Property Prices on Protracted Recovery
Favourable market conditions including mainly low interest rates in the past decade
and repatriation of profits and capitals by Taiwanese investors in mainland China
are propelling the Taiwanese housing market upward. The property market is
experiencing the longest extended period of recovery since the burst of the great
property market bubble in 1990. The extended price appreciation began from the
SARS pandemic driven bottom seen in Q203 and was only temporarily interrupted by
a transient six‐month correction, which coincided with the peak of the global credit
crisis in late 2008. The average housing prices of the capital city Taipei has almost
doubled since Q203‐to‐date while housing prices in the central and southern cities
increased more slowly — by about 73% and 33%, respectively, due to weak economic
activity and inventory left over from the previous cycle in these areas. See chart
below for Taiwanese property price trends.

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