2010年2月亚洲电信行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月亚洲电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：野村证券
        【文件格式】：PDF
        【页数】：35
        【目录或简介】：
Action
January was clearly one of the better months for Asia-ex Japan telcos, which
outperformed every other sector in the region. The desire to chase the laggards
helped and may continue, but we see little room for earnings/ guidance surprises in
the upcoming results. We continue to see more upside in KT, while Telstra's
operating trends will likely disappoint this month.
􀁡 Catalysts
We continue to focus on companies with low gearing, strong cashflow, high
earnings visibility and potential for a turnaround.
Anchor themes
We maintain our NEUTRAL stance on Asia ex-Japan telcos, given concerns over
operational and regulatory risks.
January: Month of sector resurgence
􀁣 Solid performance by sector; Indonesian and Korean telcos rally
NJA telcos had a solid month in January led by Indonesian and Korean names.
While Indonesian mid caps rose 19-39%, Korean telcos showed an encouraging
rise of 6-27% (KT moved up the highest). Indosat's replacement of its COO led to
increased hopes of a potential turnaround. KT's impressive launch of the iPhone
was accompanied by control on marketing costs. Heavyweights such as China
Mobile, China Telecom and PT Telkom were largely flat. However, Telstra, SingTel
and Bharti fell 3-7%.
􀁤 Asia ex-Japan telcos: Star among all sectors but flat m-m
Telcos were the best performing sector last month. While the remaining sectors fell
3-9%, telcos were flat m-m. 25 of 29 stocks outperformed the local market.
􀁥 February: stocks in action — KT, China Tel, DTAC, and Telstra
We believe that investors have turned positive given commitment shown by
KT's management on further restructuring - expect further upside. China Tel
should also benefit from solid net-adds, while DTAC could see upside from strong
results, higher dividend payout. For Telstra, we expect weak financial results,
which could see downward pressures on shares.
􀁦 Marketing feedback: laggards/ defensives in favour
Korean telcos are being favoured due to cheap valuations and some excitement
from rising smart-phone penetration which could drive data growth. In China,
rotation into interest rate non-sensitive sectors is raising interest in telcos. India is
still neither a conviction buy or sell.
􀁧 Earnings revisions
Upward revisions in consensus earnings expectations for KT Corp and Taiwan
Mobile. Downward revisions for RCOM, Telstra and SK Broadband.

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 电信行业 Expectations 研究报告 亚洲 行业 电信