2010年4月欧洲电信行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲电信行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：42
        【目录或简介】：

Table of Contents
Q1 outlook brief................................................................................. 3
Top-line inflection confirmed.....................................................................................................3
TeliaSonera (20th April)...................................................................... 5
Tele2 (21st April) ................................................................................. 6
Mobistar (22nd April) .......................................................................... 7
Elisa (23rd April) .................................................................................. 9
Telenet (26th April) ........................................................................... 10
KPN (27th April) ............................................................................... 12
Fastweb (29th Apr) ........................................................................... 14
France Telecom (29th April) ............................................................. 15
Swisscom (5th May) ......................................................................... 16
Telenor (5th May) ............................................................................ 18
Portugal Telecom (6th May)............................................................. 20
Telecom Italia (6th May)................................................................... 21
Deutsche Tel (12th May) ................................................................. 23
Telekom Austria (12th May)............................................................. 25
Telefonica (13th May) ....................................................................... 27
BT Group (13th May) ........................................................................ 29
Vodafone (18th May) ........................................................................ 31
CWW (26th May) ............................................................................... 33
CWC (27th May) ................................................................................ 36

Q1 outlook brief
Top-line inflection confirmed
Q4 09 stabilisation, Q1 10 recovery
Organic sector revenue growth deteriorated through 2009 in a late-cycle response to macro
slowdown. However, in-line with our analysis of the correlation between mobile usage and
employment growth, there was a recovery late in the year such that Q4 organic revenue
growth (including wireline) stabilized QoQ.
Following this, our expectation for Q1 confirms that Q4 was not a temporary reprieve but
rather an inflection point in revenue growth, such that we expect a further recovery in organic
revenue growth to -2.4% yoy. Organic revenue growth strips out FX and M&A impacts.
Underlying recovery in mobile service revenue
Underlying much of this is a recovery in mobile revenues, given its more cyclical sensitivity.
Figure 4 divides service revenue growth into its constituent parts, driven by regulation (MTR
cuts) and underlying demand. In Q1 2010 if we apply the expected change in MTR rates
alongside a broadly stable underlying growth trend, then the recovery in real GDP over the
last two quarters (the macros effect is lagged) should see a further perhaps more noticeable
improvement in mobile service revenues.
As an example, we also present service revenue trends and expectations for Telefonica in
Spain, as one of the hardest hit European economies. Growth trends can be seen inflecting in
Q3 and recovering through Q4 and into Q1 (forecast), see Figure 3.

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