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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月台湾液晶面板行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：35
【目录或简介】：
supply /demand going forward
Foundries
Front-end service providers: January sales -5% MoM at TSMC (consolidated) and -
7% at UMC. Neutral. Back-end service providers: Sales +0.3% MoM at ASE
(consolidated) and -5% at SPIL. Somewhat positive.
IDMs and fabless IC design companies
Sales fell 0.1% MoM at Macronix International, a supplier of Mask ROM for the
Nintendo DS platform. Its Mask ROM sales increased 4%. Neutral.
Consolidated sales increased 45% MoM at MediaTek, Taiwan's largest maker of
chipsets for optical disk drives.
January large TFT LCD panel shipments and prices
Shipments increased 4% MoM to 20m. They contracted in October but turned
higher in November and continued rising in Dec-Jan. By application, shipments
continued rising MoM for TVs and monitors but edged lower in December and
continued falling marginally in January for notebooks. Judging from trends in
seasonal demand, we think notebook shipments are along normal lines, while
monitor and TV shipments are stronger than usual. This reflects inventory
shortages and accelerated launches of new spring models for TVs, and inventory
shortages and changing attitudes toward buying by monitor brand makers (ie,
tolerance for holding onto inventories for more days). For notebooks, labor
shortages in China and other factors have started limiting production volume. For
panels, shipments are probably less than actual demand.
Panel demand/supply outlook: Focusing on production levels and prices,
spring model sales, stances by major brand makers
In March, we doubt that demand/supply trends will change appreciably, given that
sales during Chinese new year campaigns ended in the anticipated range, and for
new models in Europe and the US, companies should continue replenishing new
products in their pipelines from March through early April. We forecast that TV
panel production will total about 47m units in 1Q 2010 (it was 45m in 4Q 2009).
This is somewhat higher than our forecast for demand (44m), but retailers and
brand makers have been keeping inventories low and will be replacing their
models, which suggests that demand/supply will not collapse. In 2Q, however,
whereas we expect demand to stay nearly flat QoQ at around 44m, supply will
likely reach 50-52m, and this harbors risks of a supply glut. Nevertheless, we think
the situation will be different if 1) panel makers intentionally cut production around
10%, 2) they discount their prices (from US$205-210 now to $185-190), or 3) glass,
film, and other key materials are in short supply, preventing panel production from
reaching targeted volumes. For demand, we do not anticipate problems if sales of
spring models of the major set brands match our expectations, but panel
purchasing is already on pace to exceed 200m units for the year (companies have
set high targets), and panel prices, stuck at high levels, make it difficult to lower
retail prices.
This suggests it would be risky to assume that actual sales will be stronger than expected.
On the other hand, we think it would be mistaken to conclude that sales will not reach
expectations. First, Sony and other leading brand makers are aggressively pricing some of
their products quicker than expected, and we think the repercussions here will extend to
other brands. Second, retailers could intentionally discount prices due to intensifying
competition among retail and mass merchandising outlets, as happened in 4Q 2009. We
think it will be crucial to stringently monitor sales of new products for major brands in the
three large markets of the US, Europe, and China, and carefully assess the findings.
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