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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月全球锌行业研究报告
【作者】：加拿大皇家商业银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：24
【目录或简介】：
Demand
• Global zinc demand remains weak, supported almost solely by increased Chinese off take, in
part due to restocking and stimulus spending. As China’s restocking process comes to an end,
an increase in demand outside China will be required to prevent renewed weakness in global
demand. After a decline of 5.3% in 2009, we forecast a rebound in global demand of 7.4%
in 2010 driven by continued growth in China and our forecast rebound in the developed
world. We forecast further growth of 6.5% in 2011 and 2012. In 2013 and 2014 our
analysis suggests that demand could be constrained by a lack of supply.
Supply
• Our analysis suggests that capacity utilization rates fell sharply in 2009 as mine closures
restricted concentrate supply. In 2010 and beyond, utilization rates are expected to continue
to fall, constrained by a shortage of concentrate as a number of permanent mine closures
take effect. The bottle neck in the market will be mine supply. Global refined supply
decreased by 3.2% in 2009. We forecast growth of 6.7% in 2010, 2.3% in 2011, 7.4% in
2012 and 1.0% in 2013. In 2014 expect supply to fall by 3.8%.
Market Balance and Inventories
• Our forecast rebound in demand will be matched by rising mine utilization rates in 2010
through 2012 leaving the market in a surplus to balanced position until 2013 when we
expect the concentrate shortage to become acute. Inventories are expected to peak in 2010
and then begin to decline. In 2013 and 2014, the shortage of mine supply will result in a
large deficit, drawing inventories down below critical levels.
Price Forecasts
• The zinc price is currently above the bottom of its historical range in real terms versus
inventories as weeks of consumption. With inventories high and rising, and with low
capacity utilization rates, the fundamentals do not justify the current price. Investment
demand has emerged as a key driver of prices over the past six months, and while it is
impossible to know how long this will last, when the fundamentals reassert themselves the
historic inventory price relationship points to downside risk for zinc prices. We forecast an
average price of $0.87/lb in 2010, $0.80/lb in 2011, $0.85/lb in 2012, $1.00/lb in 2013 and
$1.30/lb in 2014. Our long-term price forecast (2014 and beyond) is $0.90/lb in 2010 US$.
Risks to Forecast
• Investment Demand – Investment demand has emerged as a key driver of commodity
prices over the past six months, leaving prices vulnerable to increased volatility. The
emergence of physical ETF’s could have a positive influence on prices.
• Economic Growth – Our forecast 2010 rebound is consistent with recoveries from
previous recessions. If the recovery in the developed world is more muted, any significant
improvement in the supply/demand balance could be delayed until 2011.
• China – A more muted recovery in Chinese demand than we are currently assuming could
delay a recovery until 2011. An end to the Chinese restocking process or withdrawal of
stimulus programs in the absence of a timely recovery in demand outside China could lead
to renewed demand weakness.
• Supply – Further project deferrals and stronger producer discipline than we are currently
assuming could limit the market surplus and support a recovery in the zinc market sooner
than we are currently forecasting. Conversely, continued high prices could encourage the
restart of idled capacity leading to a larger surplus in 2010.
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