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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国博彩行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：69
【目录或简介】：
Taxes Up, Casino Spend Down; Shifting Risk; Cycle into the Alpha Trade
Crossroads It seems that we are at a crossroads. Ask any investor or market
watcher where things are headed, in general or in gaming specifically, and you
usually get a large dose of uncertainty. There is hope things are getting better,
hope that unemployment has bottomed and consumer spending is on the rise.
There is hope that this recovery will be the same as the last one and the one
before that. But on the other hand, there is also concern whether this recovery will
be unlike any other. Words often referenced are ‘slow’, ‘stagnant’, ‘double dip’
and ‘sluggish’. Worries focus on our government, which is engaged in aggressive
spending, layering on entitlement programs and growing the already-large deficit.
At the same time, as the economy is attempting to recover, health care costs,
state taxes and fees, energy and commuter expenses all seem to be on the rise.
Combined, we believe this will continue to pressure consumer discretionary
income. And if that is not enough, as it relates to the gaming industry, many are
beginning to think that saturation is upon us and the old adage of “build it and they
will come” is no longer apt. There is little doubt that as gaming has expanded,
catering to the day-tripper, now somewhat satiated demand is and will continue to
be met by operators closer to the source market.
Shifting Risk; Cycle to the Alpha Trade Despite our expectations of a pull back
in consumer discretionary spending in 2011, we do believe that there are ample
opportunities for portfolio managers and investors within the gaming space,
offering attractive yields, while being aware of risk. While bonds have moved
higher rather aggressively over the past few months, often without attention paid
to risk, we believe now offers a good time for investors to shift risk and cycle back
to the Alpha trade. Historical data have shown that while the second year of a bull
market is often positive, it tends to be more muted. We believe fundamentals will
become more important and investors will need to be more selective.
Recommendations For 2010, our recommendations for risk-averse institutional
investors looking for diversification include Ameristar (ASCA), Boyd Gaming (BYD),
Isle of Capri (ISLE) and Penn National (PENN). These companies offer modest
yields coupled with what we see as stable long-term fundamentals. Further, for
investors focusing on higher yield within secured senior paper, we recommend
the MGM Mirage Senior Secured Notes (13% Senior Secured Notes 2013 (NY
NY), 10.375% Senior Secured Notes 2014 and 11.125% Senior Secured Notes
2017 (Mirage/Bellagio) and 9% Senior Secured Notes 2020 (MGM Grand)) and
Harrah’s Op Co (HOC) Senior Secured Notes (11.25% Sr Secured Notes 2017).
Finally, given the large run up of Harrah’s 2nd Lien Notes (10% Second Lien Notes
2015 and 2018), we are downgrading this credit to a HOLD. Challenged with
negative EBITDA performance and free cash flow as well as high leverage, we do
not believe current risks are appropriately reflected at these levels. We have
additional recommendations in the gaming, lodging & leisure space, which are
profiled in this report. For our detailed recommendation list and updated pricing
levels, please refer to the relative value sheets on pages 22-26.
Table of Contents
Taxes Up, Casino Spend Down; Shifting Risk; Cycle into the
Alpha Trade........................................................................................ 4
Performance Recommendation........................................................ 9
Recommendation Abstract............................................................. 13
Relative Value Tables ...................................................................... 21
Credit Comparison: Yield to Worst ................................................ 27
Credit Comparison: Spread to Worst ............................................ 29
Capex Curfew Continues... The Backside of the Wave ................ 36
Acquisition Outlook & Review ....................................................... 42
Capital Markets Review .................................................................. 45
Margin Analysis ............................................................................... 50
Gaming Equity Prices...................................................................... 52
Detailed 4Q 2009 Results – Gaming & Leisure.............................. 53
Ameristar Casinos...................................................................................................................54
Boyd Gaming ..........................................................................................................................60
Expedia ..................................................................................................................................66
Harrah’s Operating Company, Inc (‘HOC”) .............................................................................69
Isle of Capri .............................................................................................................................77
Landry’s Restaurants ..............................................................................................................84
Las Vegas Sands.....................................................................................................................88
MGM Mirage ..........................................................................................................................95
Mohegan Tribal Authority......................................................................................................103
MTR Gaming.........................................................................................................................108
Norwegian Cruise Line..........................................................................................................111
OSI Restaurant Partners........................................................................................................118
Penn National.......................................................................................................................125
River Rock Entertainment .....................................................................................................132
Royal Caribbean Cruises .......................................................................................................134
Seneca Gaming.....................................................................................................................140
Town Sports International .....................................................................................................143
Wynn Las Vegas ...................................................................................................................145
Detailed 4Q 2010 Results – Lodging ............................................ 151
FelCor Lodging Trust.............................................................................................................152
Gaylord Entertainment .......................................................................................................... 156
Host Hotels ...........................................................................................................................162
Hyatt Hotels ..........................................................................................................................166
Marriott International.............................................................................................................168
Starwood Hotels & Resorts ..................................................................................................171
Vail Resorts ...........................................................................................................................176
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