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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：44
【目录或简介】：
We look at the impact of the fiscal
problems in Greece and the periphery...
...on the major European countries’
export prospects
Forecasts for rate increases in Western
Europe pushed back
Greece, politics and money
Sovereign risk fears and news that growth ended 2009 on a
soft note have heightened concerns about the sustainability
of the European recovery. In this report, which includes all
of our latest economic forecasts for the individual European
countries, we focus on the impact of the Greek crisis and
weak peripheral economies on the major European
countries’ export prospects. We also discuss the growing
demands on Europe’s largest economy – Germany – to do
more to support growth in the region and summarise our
latest views on monetary policy across the region. We still
expect rates to rise over the next two years, though the
timing of interest rate rises in Western Europe have been
mostly pushed a little later with the ECB not expected to
raise the refi rate until next year. Nonetheless we
acknowledge that in a post-financial-crisis world concerns
about balance sheet de-leveraging could persist. The recent
data on household lending have been encouraging and
policymakers are well aware that monetary growth tends to
lag the cycle. But if we do not see at least some
improvement by end year, central bankers’ concerns about
the sustainability of the recovery and a lack of medium-term
inflationary pressures could re-emerge.
As for our GDP forecasts, the near stagnation that we had
been forecasting for the Eurozone in H1 2010 started early.
Fading stimulus and bad weather suggest it will continue in
Q1 but we now look for growth to revive more quickly in
Q2, keeping our full-year forecast unchanged at 1.2%. Our
forecasts for the rest of the region are also virtually
unchanged with the revisions to Sweden, Switzerland and
the UK largely reflecting the surprises in Q4 GDP rather
than any change in the outlook. In CEE, the pace of
economic recovery remains uneven, somewhat better in
countries with stronger banking systems and cleaner
household balance sheets, such as Turkey and Poland, and
much softer elsewhere.
Peripheral Vision 3
Bumps in the road 3
Political pressures 10
Money matters 11
Inflation divergences 13
Interest rate outlook 14
HSBC Economics’ key forecasts 19
Eurozone 20
ECB normalisation continues 20
Germany 22
The Eurozone outperformer 22
France 24
Consumption to restrain GDP 24
Italy 26
A faltering recovery 26
Spain 28
Short-term boost 28
UK 30
Politics versus economics 30
Norway 32
Gradual tightening 32
Sweden 33
Continued fiscal support 33
Switzerland 34
Go with the trade flow 34
Hungary 35
On thin ice 35
Romania 36
Walking a tightrope 36
Poland 37
Fundamentals justify optimism but no room for
complacency 37
Russia 38
Fall in inflation might be misleading 38
Turkey 40
Triple headaches 40
Disclosure appendix 42
Disclaimer 43
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