荷兰银行：欧洲石油开采设备行业研究报告2009年1月

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Cutting forecasts further
We have cut target prices for our oil services universe 16.5% on average and lowered our
EPS forecasts 6.7% for 2009 and 11.9% for 2010. We are around 10% below IBES
consensus for 2009 and 20% for 2010. For the companies we cover, IBES consensus
forecasts have been cut, on average, 19% for 2009 in the past six months, driven by
expectations of reduced exploration and production (E&P) spending (IHS-Herold forecasts a
13% decline in 2009) and price pressure.
The balance of power is shifting towards the oil companies
The combination of a low oil price, limited credit availability and high services costs have
changed the industry picture. Integrated oil companies are postponing projects and putting
pressure on pricing, leaving oil services companies in a weak negotiating position.
Key stock picks and positioning
From a subsector point of view, we believe seismic and floating production are the most
unattractive segments. We remain relatively positive on the deepwater drilling sector
(Seadrill, Fred Olsen Energy) and we think selective longer term investment opportunities
can be found in engineering and construction (eg, Saipem, Aker Solutions). We have
downgraded Subsea 7 to Hold (from Buy) as we expect it could be impacted by project
delays. Our top relative pick is Saipem.

Contents
Investment view: Neutral 2
We remain neutral on the oil services sector and reduce our forecasts and target
prices.
2
Subsector performance and outlook 15
We see selective investment opportunities in drilling and in the contractors, but
remain negative on seismic and floating production.
15
Delays, capex cuts, price negotiations 18
The combination of low oil prices, cost inflation and declining demand have
changed the industry picture. Integrated oil companies are postponing projects and
putting pressure on pricing, leaving oil services companies in a weak negotiating
position.
18
Subsector soundbites 28
We have compiled anecdotal evidence confirming our negative expectations for the
operating trends for each subsector.
28
Seismic sector 28
Drilling sector 32
Engineering and construction sector 37
Equipment and services 38
Floating production 41
Compay profiles
Acergy 45
Aker Solutions 49
CGG Veritas 53
Fred Olsen Energy 57
PGS 61
Saipem 65
Seadrill 69
Subsea 7 73
Technip 77
Appendix 81
European (ex UK) small/mid-cap team 90

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