石油开采行业研究报告2008年7月

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In an energy-hungry world, E&P’s
should outperform.
􀂃 Long-term demand trends are bullish for both oil and prices
For natural gas, environmental advantages of gas vs. coal will continue to
drive domestic gas demand for electric generation over the next decades
(52% by 2030*). High prices are affecting demand to a lesser extend than
we have seen historically. For oil, we believe worldwide oil demand will
remain robust due to needs of rapid-growth developing economies such as
China and India, despite a recent increase in price caps. Because we are
concerned with adequate global supply growth and believe fossil fuel
alternatives will not materially alter oil demand for a number of years, we
remain bullish on prices for both oil and gas.
􀂃 Domestic gas producers boosted by prices, new resource plays
1 – New resource plays have the market on fire. Production growth could
be limited by the number of rigs, compressors, pipeline capacity, etc.
2 – Competition for LNG in Europe and Asia will likely minimize the
potential dumping of LNG into the US.
3 – Canada’s contribution to US gas supply should decrease as it faces
similar steep gas declines and as gas is diverted to oil-sands activity.
4 – Increasing acceptance of global warming means new coal plants will
be more difficult to permit/finance in the U.S., leaving new electric
generation additions to be fuelled by gas and alternatives, and ultimately
nuclear. Until then, demand seems to be shrugging off high gas prices to
a greater extent than in pricing-peak cycles of the past.
􀂃 For oil producers, the party has just begun
1 – Chinese growth is estimated at 5.5% this year, India at 3.9% and the
Middle East at 6%, driving worldwide growth of 0.8 mmbbl/d in 2008. Since
many developing and Middle East nations cap prices, there is no incentive
to conserve. In the Mideast, record oil profits are driving new energy
intensive investments (e.g., petrochemicals and fertilizer plants).
2 – We are hard-pressed to see how 29 mmbbl/d of net incremental
production can come online in the next 22 years. OPEC’s addiction to high
prices should reinforce continued tightly controlled production. We believe
conservation and alternatives to oil have the potential to drop prices more
than opening up ANWR and the OCS.
3 – Stuff happens. In one recent week, we saw shut-ins due to bombings
in Nigeria, plus strikes there and an attempted bombing in Saudi Arabia.
Oil sourced from political hotspots has lead to a political risk premium
upwards of $30-$40/bbl, which we do not anticipate will go away.
􀂃 We are recommending an overweight in the energy sector
While demand destruction does present a pullback risk, a price drop now
will destroy US progress toward conservation/alternatives and put an end
to rising price caps in India/China. We believe any pullback in oil pricing
would be short lived until alternatives are widespread. Even if higher prices
cause some demand destruction in developing economies, we are so
concerned about the supply side we think it may be too little too late.

Table of Contents:
Summary ........................................................................... 5
America Thrives on Energy; a first look at US
demand..............................................................................
6
Natural Gas Supply .......................................................... 8
Canada-A reliable import becomes much less reliable.............. 8
LNG-Competition with rest of the the world will hamper imports 8
Domestic Supply………………………………..………….. 9
Natural Gas Demand……………………………………….. 10
Recent Events…………………………………........................... 12
The Weather Wildcard……………………………............. 13
The elasticity of the gas market…………………………………. 14
Shalemania and Tight gas: Revolutionizing the game
for domestica producers .................................................
15
Haynesville Shale ...................................................................... 17
Marcellus Shale ......................................................................... 17
Oil Supply/Demand…....................................................... 17
The China Factor…………………………………………………. 18
OPEC’s price addiction and where is all the needed oil coming
from, anyway?............................................................................
19
IEA’s Concern on supply heightens……………………………… 20
Lofty Iraqi production increases in future? Don’t hold your
breath………………………………………………………………..
21
Conclusions…………………………………………………. 22
What are looking for in E&P companies?...................... 22

Table of Contents Continued:
Operating Cost Structure ........................................................... 22
Consistent reserve replacement ................................................ 22
Location, Location, Location ...................................................... 23
Manageable Debt ...................................................................... 23
High Operatorship………………………………………………….. 23
Defined corporate strategy…………………………..……………. 23
Management………………………………………………………… 23
Research Universe……………………………..............................23

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