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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国核能行业研究报告
【作者】：瑞士信贷
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：53
【目录或简介】：
At least a Rmb750-1,125 bn investment: China has set out an ambitious
plan for nuclear power development, with the most capacity under
construction/planning globally, to reduce dependence on fossil energies and
to cut emissions. We estimate China will install 75 GW of new nuclear power
capacity between now and 2020, which still looks conservative compared
with the 160-220 GW implied by China’s carbon emission cutting target by
2020 (Figure 1). Our 75 GW estimate implies Rmb750-1,125 bn total
investment assuming Rmb10,000-15,000/kW unit capex.
■ Breakdown of the ‘big pie’: According to our channel checks, around 50%
of nuclear power plant’s capex is for design/civil engineering and the
remainder for equipment procurement (of this 50%, nuclear island
equipment accounts for approximately 45%, conventional island 30% and
auxiliary equipment 25%). By simply assuming an 80% localisation ratio, we
expect domestic equipment suppliers can share at least Rmb300–450 bn in
next ten years from China’s nuclear power expansion.
■ How to become involved: Along China’s nuclear value chain, we prefer
equipment suppliers (and civil engineering/design firms when any of this
becomes investable) within the next three to five years, before domestic
orders peak (by then there may be export potential though). Then, we rotate
to nuclear power plant developers/operators and uranium suppliers, when
some may have become investable. Shanghai Electric, Dongfang Electric
and Harbin Power are the only three companies in China that can provide
both nuclear and conventional island equipment, and we believe the first two
are relatively better positioned.
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