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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月中国银行业研究报告
【作者】：德意志银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：42
【目录或简介】：
Fundamental, Industry, Thematic, Thought Leading
Deutsche Bank's Company Research's Investment Policy Committee has deemed
this work F.I.T.T. for our clients seeking differentiated ideas. The market has taken
the sharp rise in loans for the Local Government Financing Platform and the
upcoming new policy guidelines as a sign of rising systematic asset quality risk.
While the loans amount to Rmb6.5-7.0trn (20% of GDP and 115% of the total
revenue of local governments), the related asset quality concerns are overdone
and the inherent risks are smaller than what the gross debt figures suggest.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
MICA(P) 106/05/2009
FITT Research
Top picks
China Construction Bank (0939.HK),HKD6.26 Buy
Companies featured
ICBC (1398.HK),HKD5.91 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 13.5 13.2 12.1
Div yield (%) 3.7 3.8 4.1
Price/book (x) 2.0 2.5 2.3
China Construction Bank (0939.HK),HKD6.26 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 13.0 12.9 10.7
Div yield (%) 3.1 2.7 3.6
Price/book (x) 1.9 2.4 2.0
Bank of China (3988.HK),HKD4.03 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 11.3 10.8 9.4
Div yield (%) 4.6 3.2 4.1
Price/book (x) 1.0 1.7 1.5
Bank of Communications (3328.HK),HKD8.84 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 12.8 13.9 10.2
Div yield (%) 1.3 2.5 3.3
Price/book (x) 1.6 2.3 1.9
China Merchants Bank-H (3968.HK),HKD19.36 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 14.7 16.3 14.2
Div yield (%) 1.9 1.6 2.1
Price/book (x) 2.4 3.1 2.6
China CITIC Bank (0998.HK),HKD5.62 Buy
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 10.7 13.6 9.8
Div yield (%) 2.3 1.8 2.5
China Minsheng Bank (600016.SS),CNY7.45 Hold
2008A 2009E 2010E
P/E (x) 14.5 12.9 11.3
Div yield (%) 1.2 1.6 1.8
Price/book (x) 1.4 1.8 1.6
Fundamental: Most loans are to profitable projects in Tier 1 cities
Our channel checks with bank loan officers, senior management and a sampling of
some typical Government Investment Corporations (GICs) indicate that most of
the loans are extended to profitable infrastructural and commercial projects in Tier
1 cities. Projects that require subsidies range from 10-30%, implying an interest
burden of 1-3% of the recurrent revenue of the local governments, compared with
the average rate of 5% for OECD countries.
Industry: New guidelines to control risks and limit new loan growth
We believe the upcoming new guidelines for the Local Government Financing
Platform are preventive in nature, with the aim of improving transparency and risk
management of existing loans, and limiting new lending. We do not expect the
new guidelines to significantly affect banks’ capital, asset quality, provisioning and
earnings, and the loan exposure to GICs will likely fall over time.
Thematic: Limited risks to GICs in provinces with strong financial positions
The bulk of the H-share banks’ lending to GICs (80-90%) was extended to those in
provinces with strong financial positions. Our analysis shows that eight provinces
ran an estimated accounting surplus of Rmb1tr in 2009 (after land sales of
Rmb940bn), which was equivalent to 4x the interest burden of loans related to the
Local Government Financing Platform.
Thought-leading: Proprietary analysis and survey
We have sampled several typical GICs that primarily engage in real estate,
transportation, water, utility and other public services. Their financial positions are
generally strong with high interest coverage ratios. For less profitable GICs, we
deem that local governments can support them by subsidizing social servicesrelated
projects and purchasing their goods and services.
Top pick: CCB for its conservative provisioning policy; BOC/CMB least exposed
This FITT report supports CCB as our top pick as it has set aside greater excessprovision
reserves (equivalent to 76bps of its outstanding normal loans, vs the
sector’s 39bps) and has the most superior quality collateral – which implies a
greater buffer against unexpected asset-quality deterioration. Among H-share
listed banks, we believe BOC and CMB are the least exposed to loans extended to
the Local Government Financing Platform.
Table of Contents
Asset quality series – Part 1.............................................................. 3
Outlook for Chinese banks remains rosy ..................................................................................3
Valuation ..................................................................................................................................4
Risks ........................................................................................................................................6
New guidelines = better clarity and lower risks ............................. 7
Key summary points: ................................................................................................................7
Market concerns over lending boom overstated ......................................................................7
Government is the largest bank borrower in China...................................................................9
GICs = 16% of loans in 2009, up from 3.6% in 2005 .............................................................10
New guidelines on lending to the GICs...................................................................................14
Examples of Government Investment Corporations ...............................................................16
Fiscal position of central and local governments ....................................................................20
Top pick: CCB for conservative provisioning policy ................................................................23
Appendix and Company Specific Financials ................................. 29
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