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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月全球衍生品行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：PPT
【页数】：63
【目录或简介】：
Investment Roadmap
2010 Themes
• US growth is sustainable and risks are to further upside to our forecasts. Stronger-than-expected economic data,
foreclosure mitigation, and an extension of current tax rates leaves us positive on growth from 2Q10 on
• As markets heal and fundamentals diverge, differentiation among risky asset will become more important
• The significant economic growth differential of the emerging world (6.9% vs. 2.3%) will reassert itself, and thus its
outperformance relative to developed markets
• We expect the 10-year to meaningfully underperform as flight-to-quality bid subsides and deficits come into focus
• The euro will continue to weaken regardless of how sovereign stresses are dealt with
• The trade in global equities is still high-quality stocks that can handle uncertainty-induced swings.
• On earnings we are generally in-line with consensus for 2010 (S&P 500 Base Case $77 Operating EPS vs. consensus at
$80) on the back of strong GDP, cost controls, and leverage to EM growth. But we believe the market is overestimating
2011 growth of +20% to $96 given aggressive margin assumptions coupled with low capex and tax rate estimates.
• Our base case is for a mid-1200s valuation on the S&P 500 (Bull is 1395, Bear is 912)
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