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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月中东北非能源电力重工业行业研究报告
【作者】：野村证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：132
【目录或简介】：
Freshwater scarcity, population and economic growth, and unlimited
saltwater resources are key drivers underpinning growth in desalination
􀂄 Installed capacity could almost double over the period to 2016 suggesting
US$105bn of capex requirement
􀂄 MENA is set to be the key region, accounting for over half of the expected
investment in this timeframe
􀂄 Reverse osmosis is the dominant technology globally, although thermal is
important in the MENA region given access to cheap fuel
􀂄 There are opportunities to participate in the theme via EPC contractors, plant
operators and suppliers of key parts such as membranes and pumps
􀂄 EPC contractors – of the top 10, Abengoa, Acciona, Doosan, GE, Hyflux, Suez
Environnement and Veolia are quoted, although desalination is a limited part of
their businesses, albeit one which is growing. The same can be said for the IWPP
developers, such as GDF Suez, International Power and Marubeni.
􀂄 O&M – many of the top 10 EPC contractors also feature in the top 10 operators
of desalination plant, but again there is the issue of materiality. However,
rehabilitation of existing facilities should not be overlooked, and a company with
a strong track record in this area is Sasakura.
􀂄 Membrane providers – with RO the most popular desalination technology,
membranes are key, and a growth market. RO membranes need to withstand
high pressure and allow the water to pass through at high speed, enabling a
large amount of water to be desalinated in a short period of time. Few
manufacturers have the technology needed to make membranes with both of these
properties, and the major companies currently in the business include Dow
Chemical, Nitto Denko, Toray Industries and Toyobo. We believe that the
Japanese companies are particularly well placed.
􀂄 Pumps – pumps are another key component of desalination plants, and we
estimate that the market for high-pressure pumps used in desalination plants, worth
US$200m in 2008, will expand to around US$500m by 2016. The major
manufacturers of pumps for desalination plants are Torishima Pump, Flowserve,
KSB and Sulzer. In particular, we highlight Torishima Pump, which we estimate
has a market-leading 40% of the global market.
Contributing authors ........................................................................................... 2
Executive summary ............................................................................................. 3
Desalination – a global opportunity, but MENA drives growth.................................... 6
MENA the driver of global desalination growth ..................................................... 12
MENA is home to the world’s largest desalination plants… ................................... 12
… water scarcity, population and economic growth underpin a growing need ......... 12
Impediments to desalination are less in the MENA region ..................................... 16
Projects tend to be large scale ......................................................................... 20
Strong regional growth outlook – market worth US$55bn-60bn to 2016................. 21
Financing still a challenge ............................................................................... 23
Low tariffs, but demand management starting to feature ........................................ 23
Environmental concerns are adding to costs........................................................ 24
Project focus – the IWPP model .......................................................................... 25
Independent water and power producers (IWPPs) – an overview............................ 25
Market participants and the Middle Eastern opportunity ........................................ 28
Focus on power and water in the MENA region.................................................... 29
Near-term tightness in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.................................................. 30
Industrialisation creates supply surplus in Qatar ................................................... 30
High demand in Abu Dhabi versus Dubai, shortage in Northern Emirates ................... 31
GCC interconnection may improve efficiency ..................................................... 31
Project financing remains a challenge................................................................ 32
Technology focus – RO versus thermal ................................................................. 34
Two principal types of desalination – thermal and reserve osmosis (RO) ................... 34
Cost comparison – thermal versus reverse osmosis ............................................... 36
Technical comparison – thermal versus reverse osmosis......................................... 38
Typical business models.................................................................................. 38
Fragmented industry – top 10 account for one-third .............................................. 39
An overview of the global desalination market....................................................... 40
MENA to drive desalination growth .................................................................. 40
Global market worth US$105bn over 2010-16 ................................................. 44
Fragmented industry, and becoming more fragmented.......................................... 45
Value chain of many components – we focus on the key areas............................... 45
Country profiles ............................................................................................... 51
Algeria – desalination market & opportunity .......................................................... 52
Australia – desalination market & opportunity ........................................................ 54
Bahrain – desalination market & opportunity ......................................................... 56
Chile – desalination market & opportunity............................................................. 58
China – desalination market & opportunity............................................................ 60
India – desalination market & opportunity ............................................................. 62
Iran – desalination market & opportunity............................................................... 64
Israel – desalination market & opportunity ............................................................. 66
Jordan – desalination market & opportunity ........................................................... 68
Kuwait – desalination market & opportunity........................................................... 70
Libya – desalination market & opportunity ............................................................. 72
Oman – desalination market & opportunity ........................................................... 74
Qatar – desalination market & opportunity............................................................ 76
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia – desalination market & opportunity ................................. 78
Spain – desalination market & opportunity ............................................................ 80
UAE – desalination market & opportunity .............................................................. 82
USA – desalination market & opportunity.............................................................. 84
Company profiles ............................................................................................ 87
Company focus – Abengoa............................................................................... 88
Company focus – Acciona ................................................................................ 90
Company focus – Doosan Heavy Industries & Construction ...................................... 92
Company focus – GDF Suez.............................................................................. 94
Company focus – GE Water & Process Technologies, division of GE ........................ 96
Company focus – Hyflux ................................................................................... 97
Company focus – International Power .................................................................. 99
Company focus – Marubeni ............................................................................ 101
Company focus – Mitsubishi Heavy Industries...................................................... 103
Company focus – Modern Water ..................................................................... 105
Company focus – Nitto Denko ......................................................................... 107
Company focus – QEWC (Qatar Electricity & Water Company) ............................ 109
Company focus – Sasakura Engineering ............................................................ 111
Company focus – Siemens .............................................................................. 113
Company focus – Suez Environnement............................................................... 115
Company focus – TAQA (Abu Dhabi National Energy Company) ........................... 117
Company focus – Toray Industries ..................................................................... 119
Company focus – Torishima Pump..................................................................... 121
Company focus – Toyobo ............................................................................... 124
Company focus – Veolia ................................................................................. 126
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