2010年3月欧洲重工业行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲重工业行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：29
        【目录或简介】：
Growth returns in Q1
Industrial data for Jan/Feb has come in almost universally stronger than expected,
and new data on the credit impulse and inventory cycle suggest industrial growth
can accelerate further in 2010. Fresh margin analysis shows the sector average
EBITA margin in Q409 was 200-300bps better than would normally be expected
given the revenue decline, suggesting 2010 can benefit both from further return
on cost savings as well as operational leverage. Trading on a 2011e EV/EBITA of
9.3x vs. the long term average of 9-10x, we remain selectively positive.
Deutsche Bank AG/London
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MICA(P) 106/05/2009
Industry Update
China accelerates in Jan/Feb
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-05
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
May-09
Sep-09
Jan-10
China IP YoY China FAI YoY China Power Generation YoY
... as does western IP
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Jan-86
Jan-88
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
US IP YoY German IP YoY
Credit impulse supportive of growth
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Corporate credit impulse
Credit impulse with de-levering constant at Q409 rate
Capital Goods sector organic sales, % yoy (rhs)
Cost benefits already being seen
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q1 07
Q2 07
Q3 07
Q4 07
Q1 08
Q2 08
Q3 08
Q4 08
Q1 09
Q2 09
Q3 09
Q4 09
-700bps
-500bps
-300bps
-100bps
100bps
300bps
500bps
700bps
Organic sales growth (left scale) YoY change in EBITA margin (right scale)
Global Markets Research Company
Off to a good start
Initial signs suggest industrial activity in 2010 has started stronger than expected.
Industrial data from China (industrial production, exports, fixed asset investment),
Germany (industrial production, capital goods orders), and the US (industrial
production) for January (and February where available) have all come in better than
market expectations.
Positive signs from the lending markets
Our economists take the view that the measure of credit relevant for demand
growth is the credit impulse, defined as the change in new credit as a % of GDP.
As we’ve shown before, investment in capex, buildings and infrastructure can
grow even when the stock of credit is falling, as long as it falls at a slower rate.
Credit impulse data for Q409 available this week shows a further improvement in
the impulse, and supports our view of accelerating growth in 2010.
Inventory cycle continues to support IP growth thesis
As we’ve highlighted before, an end to de-stocking and beginning of re-stocking
could provide an additional boost to industrial production in 2010. Our thesis of a
1975/76 re-run is still supported by the orders/inventory components of the US
ISM survey, and January US inventory data released this month showed
inventories unexpectedly falling, as companies had difficulty keeping up with the
pace of demand, we think supportive of accelerating IP in H1 2010.
Cost achievements bode well for 2010 sector margins
We show that the sector average EBITA margin in Q409 was 200-300bps better
than would “normally” be expected given the level of sales decline, as the
benefits of cost programs started in H208/H109 kicked in. We think this suggests
sector margin improvements in 2010 will also be better than the usual relationship
of margin improvement to sales growth would normally suggest. On this measure
of margin change vs. sales change, Philips scores best for margin achievement in
Q409, with Volvo “most improved” relative to its score in Q209.
Valuation and risks
We value the sector on EV/EBIT multiples. The sector currently trades on a median
EV/EBIT of 10.9x on 2010e forecasts and 9.3x on 2011e, compared with a long
term average of 9-10x. Key risks include the pace of industrial recovery and the
ability of companies to retain the benefits from cost reductions made in the downcycle.
For further details please see page 24.

Table of Contents
Staying positive ................................................................................. 3
Key points ................................................................................................................................3
2010 off to a good start..................................................................... 4
Credit impulse update....................................................................... 5
Positive signs from the lending markets...................................................................................5
Margin progression ........................................................................... 7
Q409 development suggests upside surprise potential in 2010...............................................7
Sector growth outlook.................................................................... 10
Expect growth to accelerate in H1 2010; now more positive on H2.......................................10
The inventory de-stock/re-stock theme continues to play out.................................................11
Production manager/purchasing surveys still supportive........................................................12
Yield curve steepness signalling growth.................................................................................13
Pricing............................................................................................... 14
Product pricing bottoming; project pricing tougher ................................................................14
Company pricing trends..........................................................................................................15
Macro pricing trends...............................................................................................................16
The DB capital goods cost inflation index ...............................................................................18
Cash conversion............................................................................... 19
A relatively good recession.....................................................................................................19
Expect lower FCF conversion in 2010.....................................................................................20
Valuation .......................................................................................... 21
Sector multiples ......................................................................................................................21
Valuation methodology ...........................................................................................................24

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