2010年5月巴西基建行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月巴西基建行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：65
        【目录或简介】：
Emerging economies have shown remarkable, resilient growth in recent years. Indeed, Morgan Stanley expects strong secular forces to continue driving outperformance in emerging vs. developed economies for some time to come.
For Brazil, low infrastructure investment could become the bottleneck to growth. Other necessary steps include improving the business environment, rethinking fiscal spending priorities, reforming the tax burden, and improving the current fiscal framework.
Brazil must double its infrastructure investment rate to live up to the expectations for a BRIC member. Overall investment-to-GDP ratio averaged 17% in the past 5 years, vs. China’s 44%, India’s 38%, and Russia’s 24%. To grow at 5% per year in the next decade, infrastructure investment must double from the 2.1% of GDP average in recent years.
We believe Brazil will rise to the occasion and, over time, achieve our base case of infrastructure spending at 4% of GDP. Scheduled projects include: 2014 World Cup, 2016 Olympics, pre-salt oil reserves, and government-backed Growth Acceleration Program.
We highlight two ways for investors to participate in infrastructure investment: 1) our analysts’ top 10 picks (Cosan, Cosan Ltd., OSX, Lupatech, Gerdau, Usiminas, CCR, ALL, Tractebel, CPFL) and 2) a basket of 20 related plays (bbg ticker: <MSBZINFR>).

Table of Contents
Executive Summary...............................................................................................................................................................
3
Brazil Infrastructure: Paving the Way.....................................................................................................................................
5
Equity Investment Implications...............................................................................................................................................
7
Infrastructure Investment Requirements................................................................................................................................
10
Prospective Infrastructure Investment by Sector.....................................................................................................................
11
Challenges to Increased Infrastructure Investment.................................................................................................................
13
Current Situation: Not Good for Brazil’s Competitiveness.......................................................................................................
16
Macroeconomic Implications..................................................................................................................................................
19
Equity Section
Agribusiness: An Infrastructure Play Via Rumo (Cosan SA, Cosan Ltd.).........................................................................
25
Basic Materials: Steel Is Our Favorite Way to Play Infrastructure in Brazil; Limited Benefits to Mining or Pulp & Paper (Gerdau, Usiminas).........................................................................................................................................................
28
Oil, Gas & Petrochemicals: Pre-Salt and Local Content Boosting Local Development (OSX, Lupatech)........................
33
Transportation Infrastructure: Highways and Rail: CCR and ALL Benefit from Accelerating Infrastructure Investment (ALL, CCR).....................................................................................................................................................................
37
Utilities/Electric and Water: In Support of Economic Growth (Tractebel, CPFL)..............................................................
41
Appendix I: Infrastructure Across Sectors in Brazil.................................................................................................................
46
Appendix II: The Growth Acceleration Program (PAC)............................................................................................................
54
Appendix III: The 2014 World Cup and 2016 Olympic Games................................................................................................
58
Appendix IV: Morgan Stanley Brazil Infrastructure Basket Constituents (Bloomberg ticker: <MSBZINFR>)...........................
60
Appendix V: Companies Leveraged to Infrastructure Investment...........................................................................................
61

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 Implications Acceleration 研究报告 行业 巴西 基建