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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月美国科技行业研究报告
【作者】：PARADIGM证券
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：46
【目录或简介】：
For the first time in over a decade, the Nasdaq has begun a
period of outperformance relative to the broader S&P 500
Index. Within this context, we believe the current advance
above 52-week highs will continue for the Nasdaq.
􀁘 Our conclusion, both fundamentally and technically, is that
there are a number of catalysts, which could help to support
the start of a new emerging secular uptrend in technology.
􀁘 As such, we recommend investors remain overweight the
technology sector.
Industrial Technology: Daniel Kim, Analyst
􀁘 Key themes include: 1) the explosive growth in demand for bandwidth, and its positive
impact on the fiber optics industry, along with 2) the positive implications of the strong
rebound in consumer demand for technology-related products.
􀁘 Our focus hardware names include: ATS, Enablence, EXFO and Neo Material.
Software: Gabriel Leung, Analyst
􀁘 Key themes include: 1) the expected recovery in enterprise demand, and its positive
implications for operating margins and valuation, along with 2) the growing popularity of
SaaS-based companies, particularly given their strong performance during the recent
macroeconomic slowdown.
􀁘 Our focus software names include: Descartes, Guestlogix, Matrikon, Open Text,
Softchoice, and SXC.
Wireless: Barry Richards, Analyst
􀁘 Within this sector, we have highlighted companies with the greatest exposure to the
wireless data trend, which we view as strongest growth driver in the
telecommunications space.
􀁘 Our focus wireless names include: Glentel, RIM, Redknee, Sierra Wireless, Wi-Lan.
Technical Analysis: Tina Norman, CMT
The uptrend within the Nasdaq Composite Index over the past year mirrors the 2003 bullish
reversal:
􀁘 The climb above the 20-month moving average highlights a significant transition in the
longer-term trend. In 2003, this movement set the Nasdaq up for a 4-year advance. The
current uptrend remains intact after the mid 2009 reclaim of the 20-month moving
average near 1900.
􀁘 Supporting this change is the budding momentum present in the monthly RSI and
MACD indicators. Similar to 2003, the monthly MACD was first to make a bullish
transition above 50. Confirming this trend change in momentum, the monthly MACD
followed with a buy signal that is moving up towards the zero line.
How is the current technical upward progression different from 2003? For the first time in
over a decade, the Nasdaq has begun a period of outperformance relative to the broader
S&P 500 Index. This concludes a multi-year period of repair from the “tech crash” and
perhaps the start of a new emerging secular uptrend in technology.
Industrial Technology: Daniel Kim, Analyst
Fiber Optic Industry in Overdrive
Best Fiber Plays: ENA (leader), EXFO (laggard)
Consumers Driving Rebound in Demand
Best Way To Leverage Consumer Spending: NEM (leader), ATA (laggard)
Software: Gabriel Leung, Analyst
Enterprise Spending: The Road to Recovery
Best Ways to Play the Recovery: OTEX, DSGX, MTK, SO
SaaS Bucking the Trend: DSGX, GXI, SXC
Wireless: Barry Richards, Analyst
Blackberries and iPhones leading the Charge
2010: The Year of the Smartphone
Best Ways To Play Wireless Data: RIMM, SWIR, WIN, RKN and GLN
Technical Analysis: Tina Norman, CMT
A New Secular Bull Market in Technology?
Chart 1: Nasdaq Composite Index
Chart 2: Semiconductor Index
Chart 3: Cree, Inc.
Chart 4: Intel Corp.
Chart 5: S&P 500 Tech Hardware & Equipment Index
Chart 6: Hewlett-Packard Co.
Chart 7: Apple, Inc.
Chart 8: Research in Motion Ltd.
Chart 9: S&P 500 Software and Services Index
Chart 10: Oracle Corp.
Canadian Technical Top Picks:
Chart 11: Imax Corp.
Chart 12: Open Text Corp.
Chart 13: Descartes Systems Group, Inc.
Chart 14: Wi-LAN, Inc.
Chart 15: Enablence, Inc.
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