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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国银行业研究报告
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：37
【目录或简介】：
CCB is our top large-cap pick; we favor CMB in
non-large-caps: We view NII, provisioning and capital
plans as the three key share price drivers. CMB (PT
HK$22.68) is well positioned from both the NII and
provisioning perspective. CCB (PT HK$8.17) has
continued to deliver solid financials and has the most
straightforward capital-raising plan among large caps.
Following 1Q10 results, we are trimming earnings
estimates for some banks, but by no more than -4%. We
are raising others as much as 6%. The general trends in
1Q10 were stronger fee growth and less favorable NII.
We upgrade Industrial from EW to OW, reflecting our
higher estimates and good risk-reward.
CMB stands out on NII: Citic and Minsheng’s
loan-deposit ratios need to be lower in order to meet the
75% cap by mid-2010. Managing down L/D ratios via
stronger growth in deposits would be more challenging
for these banks, which lack strong retail franchises.
Large-cap banks (e.g., ICBC) will continue to see their
bond books repriced downward. Improving loan pricing
is likely to help drive NIM across the industry.
CCB, CMB and ICBC rank better on provisioning
and property: Despite our benign credit outlook call,
property-related policies are likely to shift sentiment
more toward the negative side in the near term. ICBC,
CCB and CMB have a higher collective provision rate (at
150bps+) than the peer group. CCB showed only
moderate growth in property development loans in 2009.
Worst over for large caps and BoComm on capital
raising; uncertainties ahead for Citic: Uncertainty is
the lowest for BoComm and CCB given the rights issue
proposal and maximum amount indicated. We see
capital overhang shifting toward the mid-size banks, in
particular Citic Bank. If Citic is to bring its Tier 1 to 9% by
the end of 2011, it would have to raise equity capital to
the tune of RMB20bn some time in 2011.
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